NPP equipment resource management. To resource management of equipment and pipelines. dissertations for an academic degree

1 Current state of the theory of forecasting and assessing the reliability characteristics of nuclear power plant equipment.

1.1 Lifetime management of NPP CPT equipment: conceptual approach.

1.2 Operational reliability of secondary circuit elements.

1.2.1 General characteristics of the secondary circuit equipment.

1.2.2 Operational reliability of the capacitor.

1.2.3 Operational reliability of HDPE and LDPE.

1.2.4 SG operational reliability.

1.3 Statistical and physical-statistical approaches to assessing equipment life.

1.4 Analysis of resource management methods.

1.5 Conclusions on the first chapter.

2 Forecasting the service life of a nuclear power plant unit.

2.1 Analysis of methodological and guidance materials for assessing the technical condition and residual life of NPP electrical components.

2.2 Level optimization problem for detecting disorder in an observed random process.

2.3 Problems of safety and development of nuclear energy in Russia.

2.4 Development of an economic criterion.

2.5 Markov operating model.

2.6 Conclusions on the second chapter.

3 Forecasting the service life of secondary circuit equipment using damage summation methods.

3.1 Limit state criteria and models of damage accumulation in the material of secondary circuit equipment.

3.2 Development of a model of droplet impact erosion.

3.3 Calculation of reliability characteristics of steam-water equipment

Nuclear power plants under conditions of droplet impact erosion.

3.4 Model of linear summation of damage in heat exchanger tubes of steam generators.

3.5 Model of nonlinear summation of damage.

3.6 Influence of the accuracy of measurement of the main indicators of the water chemistry regime on the calculation results.

3.7 Conclusions on the third chapter.

4 Forecasting the service life of SG heat exchange tubes using the linear stochastic Kalman filtration method.

4.1 Analysis of operational data and problem statement.

4.2 Construction of a Kalman filter for predicting the SG resource based on a damage summation model.

4.3 Kalman filter algorithm for the crack growth process in PTSG.

4.4 The principle of constructing an optimal algorithm for managing the resource of the PG tube based on the Kalman filter.

4.5 Conclusions on the fourth chapter.

5 Development of a method for optimizing the volume and frequency of monitoring of nuclear power plant equipment elements subject to erosion-corrosion wear.

5.1 Problem of ECI of NPP equipment.

5.2 Method for predicting ECI.

5.3 ECI process model.

5.4 Developed algorithms for processing primary control data.

5.5 Results of processing of primary control data on

5.6 Results of processing of primary control data on

5.7 Results of processing data from primary control at BlkNPP.

5.8. Results of processing of primary control data at KolNPP.

5.9 To justify the methodology for calculating permissible wall thicknesses.

5.10 Conclusions on the fifth chapter.

6 Neural network model for assessing and predicting the performance of equipment elements of nuclear power plants subject to erosion-corrosion wear.

6.1 Review of methods for predicting ECI intensity.

6.2 Rationale for the use of neural networks to predict the intensity of the ECI process.

6.3 Learning algorithms and neural network models.

6.4 Conceptual diagram of an intelligent system for the task of predicting ECI.

6.5 Conclusions on section 6.

Recommended list of dissertations

Lifetime management of elements of the condensate-feed duct of VVER power units based on analysis of operational data 2007, Candidate of Technical Sciences Kornienko, Konstantin Arnoldovich
Forecasting the service life and reliability of heat exchange equipment of power plants 2008, candidate of technical sciences Derii, Vladimir Petrovich
Diagnostics and control of erosion-corrosion wear of pipelines and heat exchange equipment of nuclear power plants 2000, candidate of technical sciences Nemytov, Sergey Aleksandrovich
Systematization and development of models for forecasting the service life of equipment of power units of nuclear power plants 2004, candidate of technical sciences Zhiganshin, Akhmet Abbyasovich
Increasing the reliability and service life of power equipment operating in two-phase and multi-component flows 2003, Doctor of Technical Sciences Tomarov, Grigory Valentinovich

Introduction of the dissertation (part of the abstract) on the topic “Physical and statistical models for resource management of secondary circuit equipment of nuclear power plants”

The safety of a nuclear power plant is largely determined by the reliable operation of the steam generation system and the external cooling system, consisting of steam turbine condensers and a regeneration system.

Safe operation of NPP power units and measures to extend the service life are impossible without careful compliance with the rules and regulations of operation and maintenance, analysis of the effectiveness of certain control actions, the development of methods for probabilistic forecasting of the resource characteristics of equipment, as well as the introduction of modern procedures for processing control data. Reviews by I.A. are devoted to these issues. Tutnova, V.I. Baranenko, A.I. Arzhaeva, S.V. Europin, works by A.F. Getman, V.P. Gorbatykh, N.B. Trunova, A.A. Tutnova and others.

But in addition to the safety condition, the operation of the power unit is also subject to the condition of economic efficiency of operation. These problems are considered and developed in the works of A.N. Karkhova, O.D. Kazachkovsky and others. The efficiency of electricity production largely depends on the downtime of the unit associated with carrying out preventive maintenance or eliminating the causes of failures of NPP equipment. The classification of safety-important equipment carried out in various countries developing nuclear power has identified the main types of equipment that should be considered when making life extension decisions. These issues are substantively discussed in IAEA documents, in the works of E.M. Sigala, V.A. Ostreykovsky and others. The influence of the selected equipment on the capacity of the electric power plant is due to downtime due to the unreliability of this equipment. One of the main tasks in this regard is to predict the reliability characteristics of equipment and evaluate the effectiveness of control measures based on models of aging processes that limit its resource. In a large number of works devoted to the development of theoretical models of these processes, the presented models are quite complex and contain a large amount of specific data, which makes it difficult to use such models in resource forecasting.

Currently relevant is the problem of optimizing the service life of a power unit, taking into account the effects of aging of equipment metal and the cost of modernization measures. A special feature of the task of optimizing the service life of an electric vehicle is that it is an individual forecasting task, therefore it is necessary to organize the collection and processing of initial information, justify the choice of an economic criterion, and formulate an optimization principle taking into account the economic situation during the operation of a particular electric vehicle.

Secondary circuit equipment plays a special role in this regard, because it is subject to various aging processes, operates in different conditions, the assigned resource is, as a rule, comparable to the resource of the unit, replacement has a fairly high cost.

The aging processes of secondary circuit equipment materials, as well as nuclear power plant equipment in general, are objective, and timely effective resource management requires an assessment of the technical condition of the equipment during operation and the widespread use of diagnostic and non-destructive testing programs. This data must be processed in a timely and high-quality manner and used in predicting the resource characteristics of equipment.

Therefore, the need to develop approaches, methods and algorithms for setting and solving the problem of optimizing the service life of electronic components, developing methods for predicting the resource taking into account various factors, the nature of the aging process and its probabilistic nature, as well as the use of computational procedures that allow obtaining effective estimates, determine the relevance of the dissertation work.

The conditions laid down in the project and determining the technical, economic and time aspects of the design period may differ significantly from the real ones during operation. Moreover, they can be improved by mitigating damaging factors through maintenance and upgrading and hence manage their service life.

The AC (Ageing Management Program - AMP) concept is based on the preservation of design indicators and functions important for safety through an interconnected system of activities for technical and diagnostic maintenance, timely repair and modernization. Modernization should also include the introduction of new operating and repair technologies, including those for managing nuclear power plants, which make it possible to reduce the rate of degradation of the properties and parameters of equipment and engineering systems of specific units.

Active work on the topic of service life extension (LSE), with an emphasis on aging mechanisms and measures to reduce their impact, led to the emergence of the term “aging management”, which emphasizes the controllability of the process and the possibility of active influence< со стороны эксплуатирующей организации.

Lifetime management (LLM) of nuclear power plants is an integrated practice to ensure socio-economic efficiency and safe operation, including aging management programs.

From an economic point of view, CSS is one of the essential parts of the general methodology and practice of cost optimization in order to achieve maximum profits while maintaining competitiveness in the market of electricity producers and ensuring safety. From a technical point of view, the CSS is a set of measures to maintain or improve the safety of a nuclear power plant, ensure the operability and durability of the main elements (systems) and the unit as a whole while minimizing operating costs. Conditions for the preparation and implementation of service life management must be created at all stages of the life cycle of a power unit.

A brief analysis of the programs of IAEA Member States and a general methodology for addressing the problem of service life extension (LSE) is given in the IAEA report “Nuclear Power Plant Aging and Life Extension”. All programs are classified as follows:

Estimation of the service life of equipment that cannot be replaced;

Extension of service life or planned replacement of main elements that are feasible for economic reasons;

Planning major repairs and replacement of equipment to ensure operational safety and reliability.

The main theoretical developments in this area should be:

Methods for assessing reliability;

Safety assessment methods;

Methods for assessing economic efficiency;

Methods for predicting aging over time.

The object of study is the equipment of the secondary circuit of a nuclear power plant. The subject of the study is to assess the resource characteristics of equipment.

The goal and objectives of the study are to develop theoretical foundations and applied models for assessing, predicting and managing the service life of equipment in the secondary circuit of NPPs based on statistical processing of data on operation and taking into account the mechanisms of aging processes. To achieve this goal, the following tasks are solved. 1. Analysis and systematization of data operation from the point of view of the impact of physical processes on the aging processes of secondary circuit equipment materials and justification for the use of physical and statistical models for individual assessment, prediction and management of the service life of NPP secondary circuit equipment.

2. Development of methods for predicting the service life characteristics of secondary circuit equipment under conditions of accumulation of damage from various material aging processes, taking into account their probabilistic nature.

3. Development of methods and algorithms for optimizing the service life of a power unit based on an economic criterion that takes into account the divergence of costs and results, the reliability characteristics of the unit’s equipment and the cost of repairs and replacements of equipment during operation.

4. Development of methods for solving the problem of achieving the limit state by elements of nuclear power plant equipment.

5. Optimization of the volume and frequency of monitoring the technical condition of equipment in the secondary circuit of NPPs subject to erosion-corrosion wear.

6. Development of a method for predicting the intensity of the ECI process of nuclear power plant equipment elements made of pearlitic steels, based on the theory of neural networks.

Research methods. The work is based on the use and development of methods for the safe operation of nuclear power plants, reliability theory, probability theory and mathematical statistics, with the use of which the following were carried out:

Analysis of current factors limiting the life of NPP equipment;

Analysis of statistical data on the performance of nuclear power plant equipment;

Modeling of aging processes based on the physics of processes, experimental data and periodic monitoring data.

The scientific novelty of the work lies in the fact that, in contrast to existing approaches to determining the service life of a power unit, the proposed concept uses a problem formulation taking into account the effects of aging of nuclear power plant equipment, and also in the fact that methods have been developed for predicting the service life characteristics of equipment using models of physical aging processes , a larger volume of information on operating parameters and measures taken to manage the service life of secondary circuit equipment of nuclear power plants. When developing methods for assessing and predicting resource characteristics, a number of new theoretical results were obtained: the significance of factors that determine the intensity of aging processes in a material, necessary for managing the resource of specific NPP equipment;

Probabilistic model for predicting the service life of heat exchange tubes of a steam generator based on methods of linear and nonlinear summation of damage, taking into account operating parameters and the type of the main aging process; asymptotic methods for solving the problem of equipment elements reaching a limit state: in the model of droplet impact erosion under conditions of two-phase coolant flows, in methods for summing damage in the problem of estimating the service life of steam generators;

A method for predicting the resource of a steam generator tube based on linear stochastic Kalman filtration, which makes it possible to take into account a large amount of operational data, monitoring data and research results based on mathematical models of damage processes and ongoing preventive measures, which leads, in contrast to known methods, to increasing the reliability of the forecast and the possibility qualitatively manage the resource of the tubule based on the formulated principle of optimal control;

A method for optimizing the volume and frequency of monitoring the thickness of NPP equipment elements subject to erosion-corrosion wear, based on the proposed methodology for processing control data and identifying elements belonging to the ECI risk group, calculating permissible wall thicknesses and ranking elements according to the degree of wear and ECI rate, based on the first analysis of a large number of measurements at the Kola, Kalinin, Balakovo, Novovoronezh, Smolensk NPPs;

A neural network model for assessing and predicting the performance of equipment elements subject to erosion-corrosion wear, based on observed parameters that determine the intensity of the ECI process and control data, which, unlike existing statistical and empirical models, allows us to assess the mutual influence of all factors and highlight the essential properties of incoming information and, ultimately, improve the accuracy of the forecast without determining all the dependencies between the many factors that determine the ECI process; a method for optimizing the service life of a power unit based on an economic criterion that takes into account the divergence of costs and results, the reliability characteristics of the unit’s equipment and the cost of repairs and replacements of equipment during operation.

The reliability of scientific provisions is confirmed by the strict substantiation of models describing the processes of operability of secondary circuit equipment with the correct formulation of definitions of limit states of equipment, methods and provisions, as well as the correspondence of a number of results to operational data. Provisions submitted for defense 1. The significance of factors influencing the aging processes of metals and necessary for the individual application of physical and statistical models for assessing and managing the service life of secondary circuit equipment.

2. Physico-statistical models for assessing, predicting and managing the life of equipment of the secondary circuit of a nuclear power plant, based on the method of summing up damage caused by various aging processes, to carry out variation calculations and justify the values of parameters that make it possible to manage the life of the equipment.

3. Asymptotic methods for solving problems of assessing the service life characteristics of NPP equipment elements, based on the Central Limit Theorem (CLT), and their application to the damage accumulated in the equipment material under conditions of droplet impact erosion of pipeline bends with a two-phase coolant and under conditions of stress corrosion cracking of heat exchanger tubes of a steam generator .

4. Method for predicting the resource of steam generator tubes in nuclear power plants based on the theory of stochastic filtration.

5. Method for optimizing the volume and frequency of thickness measurements of NPP equipment elements, taking into account their categorization according to the ECI rate.

6. Neural network model of a generalized accounting of operating factors for predicting the ECI rate in the equipment elements of nuclear power plants.

7. Method for optimal management of the service life of a power unit, taking into account the divergence of costs and results.

The practical value of the results of the work lies in the fact that, based on the above theoretical principles and methods, algorithms and engineering techniques have been developed that make it possible to justify the values of technological parameters for managing equipment life. The calculations carried out using the developed methods made it possible to assess the resource indicators of the secondary circuit equipment of nuclear power plants with VVER-1000, VVER-440 and RBMK-1000 reactors at the Kola, Smolensk, Kalinin, Balakovo NPPs and to develop recommendations for their management.

The scope of application of the results is resource management of steam generator tubes, heat exchange condenser tubes, and pipeline elements made of pearlitic steels.

Testing and implementation of results

The work was carried out within the framework of the themes of the Energoatom concern

Diagnostics, equipment life, steam generators, quality. Feasibility study for the replacement of copper-containing equipment KPT for the head unit of VVER-1000 (power unit No. 3 of BlkNPP),

Fundamental problems of decommissioning of nuclear power plants,

Finalization of the “Norms for permissible thicknesses of pipeline elements made of carbon steel AS” RD EO 0571-2006” and “Development of a guideline document for assessing the technical condition of equipment elements and pipelines subject to erosion-corrosion wear”;

A comprehensive program of measures to prevent destruction and increase the operational erosion and corrosion resistance of nuclear power plant pipelines. No. AES PRG-550 K07 of the Energoatom concern on the topic “Calculation and experimental substantiation of the volume and frequency of control of erosion-corrosion wear of pipelines of nuclear power plants with VVER:1000 reactor reactor”,

Processing and analysis of the results of thickness measurements of pipeline elements of units 1-3 of the Smolensk NPP.

The dissertation materials were presented and discussed at the following international and all-Russian conferences: 1. System problems of reliability, mathematical modeling and information technology, Moscow-Sochi, 1997, 1998.

2. NPP safety and personnel training, Obninsk, 1998,1999,2001,

3. 7th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering. Tokyo, Japan, April 1923, 1999 ICONE-1.

4. Control and diagnostics of pipelines, Moscow, 2001.

5. PSAM 7 ESREL 04 International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, Berlin, 2004.

6. Mathematical ideas of P. JI. Chebyshev and their application to modern problems of natural science, Obninsk, 2006.

7. Safety, efficiency and economics of nuclear energy, Moscow,

8. MMR 2007 International Conference on Mathematical Methods in Reliability. Glasgow, Great Britain, 2007.

9. Problems of materials science in the design, manufacture and operation of equipment, St. Petersburg, 2008. Publications. 57 scientific papers have been published on the topic of the dissertation, including 20 articles in scientific and technical journals, 15 articles in collections, 22 in conference proceedings.

The dissertation raises methodological issues of predicting the service life of NPP secondary circuit equipment, develops methods based on a physical-statistical approach, and proposes effective computational procedures for calculating service life characteristics.

Main publications

1. Gulina O. M., Ostreykovsky V. A. Analytical dependencies for assessing reliability taking into account the correlation between the load and the bearing capacity of the object // Reliability and quality control. - 1981. - No. 2.-s. 36-41.

2. Gulina O.M., Ostreykovsky V.A., Salnikov H.JI. Generalization of the “parameter-tolerance zone” and “load-bearing capacity” models when assessing the reliability of objects // Reliability and quality control.-1982.-No. 2.-p. 10-14.

3. Gulina O. M., Salnikov N. JI. Construction of a model for predicting the life of a pipeline in case of erosion damage // News of universities. Nuclear energy. - 1995. - No. Z.-s. 40-46.

4. Gulina O.M., Salnikov H.JI. Diffusion model for probabilistic forecasting of the service life of nuclear power plant equipment // News of universities. Nuclear energy. - 1995. - No. 1.- p. 48-51.

5. Gulina O. M., Salnikov N. JI. Model for assessing the resource of PG tubes under stress-corrosion cracking conditions // News of universities. Nuclear energy. - 1996. - No. 1. - p. 16-19.

6. Egishyants S. A., Gulina O. M., Konovalov E. N. Estimation of resource distribution when summing up damage // News of universities. Nuclear energy. 1997.-No. 1.- p.18-21.

7. Gulina O.M., Salnikov H.JI. Probabilistic forecasting of the service life of pipelines and pressure vessels // News of universities. Nuclear energy. -1998. -No. 1.-S.4-11.

8. Filimonov E.V., Gulina O.M. Generalized integrated model for predicting the reliability of nuclear power plant pipelines under fatigue loading // News of universities. Nuclear energy. - 1998. -No. З.-с.З-l 1.

9. Gulina O.M. Assessment and forecasting of the service life of nuclear power plant equipment. / Scientific research in the field of nuclear energy in technical universities of Russia: collection of scientific tr.-M.: MPEI, 1999.-P.201-204.

Yu.Gulina O.M., Salnikov H.JI. Calculation of resource characteristics of equipment under conditions of nonlinear effects of degradation processes // News of universities. Nuclear energy. -1999. -No. 4. -p.11-15.

11. V. A. Andreev, O. M. Gulnna. A quick method for predicting the growth of cracks in large-diameter pipelines // News of universities. Nuclear energy. - 2000. - No. 3. - pp. 14-18.

12. Gulina O.M., Zhiganshin A.A., Chepurko V.A. Development of a criterion for optimizing the service life of a power unit // News of universities. Nuclear energy. -2001. -No. 2. -p.10-14.

13. Gulina O.M., Zhiganshin A.A., Korniets* T.P. Multicriteria problem of optimizing the service life of an ACS power unit/News of Universities. Nuclear energy. - 2002.-№4.-s. 12-15.

14. Gulina O.M., Zhiganshin A.A., Mikhaltsov A.V., Tsykunova S.Yu. The problem of assessing the service life of NPP equipment under aging conditions // Nuclear measuring and information technologies. - 2004. - No. 1. - p. 62-66.

15. Gulina O.M., Kornienko K.A., Pavlova M.N. Analysis of GHG contamination of tubules and assessment of the inter-flushing period using diffusion processes methods // News of universities. Nuclear energy. -2006. -No. 1.-s. 12-18.

16. Gulina O.M., Kornienko K.A., Polityukov V.P., Frolov S.A. Application of the stochastic Kalman filtration method to predict the resource characteristics of a nuclear power plant steam generator // Atomic Energy. - 2006.-t.101 (4).- p.313-316.

17.Gulina O.M., Salnikov H.JI. Methods for predicting the service life of heat exchange equipment of AS // News of universities. Nuclear energy. - 2007. - No. 3, issue 1. - p. 23-29.

18.Baranenko V.I., Gulina O.M., Dokukin D.A. Methodological basis for predicting erosion-corrosion wear of NPP equipment using neural network modeling // News of universities. Nuclear energy. - 2008. - No. 1. - pp. Z-8.

19. Gulina O.M., Pavlova M.N., Polityukov V.P., Salnikov H.JI. Optimal resource management of a nuclear power plant steam generator // News of universities. Nuclear energy. - 2008. - No. 4. - With. 25-30.

20. Igitov A.V., Gulina O.M., Salnikov H.JL Level optimization problem for detecting disorder in an observed random process // News of universities. Nuclear energy, - 2009-№1.- p. 125-129.

21.Baranenko V.I., Yanchenko Yu.A., Gulina O.M., Tarasov A.V., Tarasova O.S. Operational control of pipelines subject to erosion-corrosion wear // Thermal Power Engineering. - 2009. - No. 5. - p. 20-27.

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Conclusion of the dissertation on the topic “Nuclear power plants, including design, operation and decommissioning”, Gulina, Olga Mikhailovna

6.5 Conclusions for Section 6

1. To assess the frequency of monitoring, models are needed to predict the development of the ECI process. Methods for predicting the intensity of the ECI process can be classified as follows:

Methods using analytical models;

Methods using empirical models;

Forecasting methods using artificial intelligence.

2. Analytical models based on a theoretical description of physical processes - individual ECI mechanisms - are capable of providing only a qualitative analysis due to the fact that the influence on the overall wear process is determined by many factors: the geometry of the equipment element, the chemical composition of the metal, the type of coolant and operating parameters.

3. Statistical models make it possible to assess the general condition of the system I f or individual groups of pipeline elements at the moment. Statistical models are based on operational monitoring data. Statistical analysis methods are used to quickly respond to the current situation: identifying elements susceptible to ECI, assessing the maximum and average speed of ECI, etc., on the basis of which the volume and approximate date of the next control can be estimated.

4. Empirical models are built on the basis of operational control data and laboratory research results: statistical, physicochemical and neural network models. To predict the ECI of the equipment of a specific unit, it is necessary to calibrate the empirical model using data from the operational monitoring of this unit. The model obtained as a result of calibration cannot be used for another block without appropriate adaptation.

5. A large number of parameters that determine the intensity of the ECI process influence each other in a complex way. The use of an ANN to solve the problem of ECI forecasting makes it possible to assess the mutual influence of all factors, highlight the essential properties of incoming information and, ultimately, improve the accuracy of the forecast without determining all the dependencies between the many factors that determine the ECI process. This allows us to substantiate the neural network approach to determining the intensity of the ECI process in the equipment of the condensate-feed tract of nuclear power plants.

6. A review of methods for training neural networks is given and an optimal combination of approaches to creating and training an artificial neural network is proposed that solves the problem of predicting the intensity of electromagnetic radiation in nuclear power plant pipelines. To increase the reliability of the forecast, it is necessary to filter the data, which consists of using only information about thinning, because the ECI process is associated with wall thinning, and thickening is caused by the transfer of corrosion products.

7. The study was carried out on the basis of a simplified artificial neural network that solves the problem of predicting the thinning of the wall of a straight section of a pipeline with a single-phase medium of a CPT NPP with VVER. The simplified network is trained using the elastic backpropagation algorithm. The area of correct forecasting over a time interval of up to 4 years has been determined.

8. To optimize the solution to the problem of predicting the ECI speed using a NN, an algorithm is proposed, including

Performing cluster analysis for analyzed situations in order to divide them into clusters of situations with similar properties, while accuracy can be increased by taking into account local and unique dependencies and factors for each cluster. I

Construction for each class of the input set of a NN, trained using the backpropagation algorithm, which will calculate the thinning of the pipeline wall for the forecast period.

9. The proposed algorithm is implemented using a complex of neural networks

Replicative NS;

Self-organizing Kohonnen map;

Backpropagation NN. t

CONCLUSION

The main theoretical and practical results obtained in the work are the following.

1. Based on the analysis and systematization of operational data, the characteristics of the impact of physical processes on the aging processes of metals of secondary circuit equipment, the need to develop and apply physical and statistical models for assessing, predicting and managing the service life of nuclear power plant equipment is substantiated. The analysis showed the determining influence of the presence of copper in the circuit on the intensity of the aging processes of the metal of the equipment of the secondary circuit of the nuclear power plant. An individual approach to assessing the current condition of equipment and developing predictive models with maximum use of available information: data on damage and its causes, factors that intensify damage processes, data from periodic monitoring of technical condition, water chemistry parameters, as well as measures that help mitigate operating conditions and reduce intensity of damage processes, - determines methods for calculating the resource characteristics of equipment.

2. The mutual influence of the equipment of the condensate-feed and steam paths, united by a water circuit, on the technical condition of each other, especially on the technical condition and efficiency of the steam generators, is shown. The main aging processes characteristic of the metal of the secondary circuit equipment, as well as factors affecting the service life of condenser tubes, HDPE and HDPE, pipelines and heat exchanger tubes of steam generators, are considered. Measures have been noted to reduce the intensity of damage processes.

3. Optimization of the service life of a power unit is carried out on the basis of an economic criterion that takes into account the divergence of costs and results, the reliability characteristics of the unit’s equipment and the cost of repairs and replacements of equipment during operation - net present value (NPV). The service life optimization criterion is maximum NPV.

The structure of the payment flow was obtained using the developed Markov operating model. The proposed model for calculating the cost of operation takes into account the loss associated with downtime, the cost of generated electricity, the cost of replacements, the cost of restoration work, the cost of modernization measures, etc.

4. Methods for predicting the service life characteristics of equipment have been developed and studied based on taking into account the accumulation of damage from the action of various aging processes of the material of the secondary circuit equipment of nuclear power plants, taking into account their probabilistic nature. To assess the performance of equipment, a stochastic measure of damage has been introduced based on the accumulation of damage in the material from the action of certain aging processes. The resource is defined as the moment the random process of damage accumulation exceeds the established level.

5. Probabilistic characteristics of the resource were obtained by methods of linear and nonlinear summation of damage - for the processes of droplet impact erosion in a two-phase flow and stress corrosion cracking of heat exchanger tubes of steam generators - for various concentrations of damaging factors and were calculated on the basis of asymptotic approximations of probability theory and mathematical statistics.

6. For the process of droplet impact erosion, characteristic of bends of steam pipelines, steam turbine blades, inlet sections of PSTE in HPH, etc., the mechanism of impact of a droplet on a solid surface is taken as a basis, taking into account the distribution of normal velocities, droplet sizes, as well as such parameters , such as steam humidity, flow rate, impact spot radius, temperature, pressure, density of liquid and steam, speed of sound in liquid, material parameters.

For SG heat exchange tubes, the damage process is based on the process of stress corrosion cracking, the intensity of which significantly depends on the concentrations of corrosion activators, the presence of deposits on the heat exchange surface, and copper concentrations in deposits, which makes it possible to control the aging process of the SG HOT by justifying the values of the corresponding model parameters.

7. An approach is proposed and justified that uses stochastic linear filtering to take into account heterogeneous information about an object when predicting its resource, as well as to take into account measures taken or planned to reduce the intensity of aging processes. The stochastic Kalman filtration method is adapted to predict the resource characteristics of heat exchanger tubes of steam generators. Algorithms for a smoothing filter and predictor have been developed. Additional information is used in the form of periodic monitoring data, the location of the tube in the assembly, errors in measuring wall thicknesses, etc. Based on the requirements for the rate of the aging process, it is possible to estimate the optimal period or optimal follow-up plan. The principle of an optimal algorithm for managing the TOT resource of SGs is formulated.

8. A systematic review of models for predicting ECI in equipment elements is provided. Procedures have been developed for processing thickness data of elements of equipment of the secondary circuit of NPPs to optimize the volume and frequency of monitoring. Based on the analysis of a large volume of monitoring data for nuclear power plants with reactors VVER-1000, RBMK-1000, VVER-440 - KlnAES, BlkAES, NVNPP, KolAES,

SAES - methods and algorithms for processing thickness data, requirements for the type and quality of information provided for calculations have been developed, the concept of a category has been introduced to designate a risk group for intensive thinning. It is proposed to include in the control plan elements whose residual life is approaching the date of the next maintenance operation.

9. The use of neural network modeling is justified to solve the problem of predicting ECI, which makes it possible to assess the mutual influence of all influencing factors, highlight the essential properties of incoming operational information without determining all the dependencies between the many factors that determine the ECI process. Using the example of a study of a simplified network for predicting wall thinning of a straight section of a pipeline of the main condensate of a nuclear power plant with VVER, trained using the elastic backpropagation algorithm, the correctness of the forecast is shown over a time interval of up to 4 years.

10. To optimize the solution to the problem of predicting the ECI speed using a neural network, an algorithm is proposed, including

Filtering data for training;

- “identifying” the characteristic features of the input set and reducing the number of input factors based on it;

Performing cluster analysis for analyzed situations;

Construction of a neural network for each class, trained using the backpropagation algorithm.

The proposed algorithm is implemented using a complex of neural networks: replicative neural network; self-organizing Kohonnen map; Backpropagation NN.

List of references for dissertation research Doctor of Technical Sciences Gulina, Olga Mikhailovna, 2009

1. RD-EO-0039-95. Regulatory and methodological requirements for managing the resource characteristics of NPP power unit elements. M., 1997.

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Please note that the scientific texts presented above are posted for informational purposes only and were obtained through original dissertation text recognition (OCR). Therefore, they may contain errors associated with imperfect recognition algorithms. There are no such errors in the PDF files of dissertations and abstracts that we deliver.

As a manuscript

UDC 621.039.586

GULINA OLGA MIKHAILOVNA

PHYSICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS FOR RESOURCE MANAGEMENT OF SECOND CIRCUIT EQUIPMENT OF NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS

Specialty 05.14.03 – nuclear power plants, including design, operation and decommissioning

A V T O R E F E R A T

dissertations for an academic degree

Doctor of Technical Sciences

Obninsk - 2009

The work was carried out at the State educational institution of higher professional education "Obninsk State Technical University of Nuclear Energy"

Official opponents Doctor of Technical Sciences Davidenko

Nikolai Nikiforovich

Doctor of Technical Sciences Gorbatykh

Valery Pavlovich

Doctor of Technical Sciences Gashenko

Vladimir Alexandrovich

Leading organization

The defense will take place " 23 » _ 09_ 2009 V _ 14 _hour_ 00 __min. at a meeting of the dissertation council D 212.176.01 at the Obninsk State Technical University of Nuclear Energy, Kaluga region, Obninsk, Campus, 1, IATE, meeting room of the Academic Council.

The dissertation can be found in the library of the Obninsk State Technical University of Nuclear Energy.

Scientific Secretary

dissertation council D 212.176.01

D.F.M. Sc., professor

general description of work

The dissertation work is aimed at solving the problem of effective management of the service life of secondary circuit equipment of nuclear power plants.

Relevance of the work. The safety of a nuclear power plant is largely determined by the reliable operation of the steam generation system and the external cooling system, consisting of steam turbine condensers and a regeneration system.

But in addition to the safety condition, the operation of the power unit is also subject to the condition of economic efficiency of operation. These problems are considered and developed in works, etc. The cost-effectiveness of electricity production largely depends on the downtime of the unit associated with carrying out preventive maintenance or eliminating the causes of failures of nuclear power plant equipment. The classification of safety-important equipment carried out in various countries developing nuclear power has identified the main types of equipment that should be considered when making life extension decisions. These issues are substantively discussed in IAEA documents, in works, etc. The influence of the selected equipment on the installed capacity utilization factor (IUR) of the power unit (PU) is due to downtime due to the unreliability of this equipment. One of the main tasks in this regard is to predict the reliability characteristics of equipment and evaluate the effectiveness of control measures based on models of aging processes that limit its resource. In a large number of works devoted to the development of theoretical models of these processes, the presented models are quite complex and contain a large amount of specific data, which makes it difficult to use such models in resource forecasting. As a rule, statistical information about failures and operating hours is used for forecasting.

Secondary circuit equipment plays a special role in this regard, since it is subject to various aging processes, operates under different conditions, the assigned resource is usually comparable to the resource of the unit, and replacement has a fairly high cost.

The aging processes of secondary circuit equipment materials, as well as nuclear power plant equipment in general, are objective, and timely effective resource management requires observation and analysis of the technical condition of equipment during operation and the widespread use of diagnostic and non-destructive testing programs. Observational data must be processed in a timely and high-quality manner and used in predicting the resource characteristics of equipment.

Object of study - NPP secondary circuit equipment.

Subject research is an assessment of the resource characteristics of the secondary circuit equipment of a nuclear power plant.

The purpose and objectives of the study are development of theoretical foundations and applied models for assessing, predicting and managing the service life of NPP secondary circuit equipment based on statistical processing of data on operation and taking into account the mechanisms of aging processes.

To achieve this goal, the following tasks are solved.

1. Analysis and systematization of operational data from the point of view of the impact of physical processes on the aging processes of secondary circuit equipment materials and justification for the use of physical and statistical models for individual assessment, prediction and management of the service life of NPP secondary circuit equipment.

4. Development of methods for solving the problem of achieving the limit state by elements of nuclear power plant equipment.

5. Optimization of the volume and frequency of monitoring the technical condition of equipment in the secondary circuit of NPPs subject to erosion-corrosion wear.

6. Development of a method for predicting the intensity of the ECI process of nuclear power plant equipment elements made of pearlitic steels, based on the theory of neural networks.

Research methods. The work is based on the use and development of methods for the safe operation of nuclear power plants, reliability theory, probability theory and mathematical statistics, with the use of which the following were carried out:

· analysis of current factors limiting the service life of nuclear power plant equipment;

· analysis of statistical data on the performance of nuclear power plant equipment;

Scientific novelty work is that, in contrast to existing approaches to determining the service life of a power unit, the proposed concept uses a problem formulation taking into account the effects of aging of NPP equipment, and also that methods have been developed for predicting the service life characteristics of equipment using models of physical aging processes, more volume of information on operating parameters and measures taken to manage the service life of secondary circuit equipment of nuclear power plants. When developing methods for assessing and predicting resource characteristics, a number of new theoretical results were obtained:

The significance of factors that determine the intensity of aging processes in a material, necessary for managing the resource of specific NPP equipment;

- a probabilistic model for predicting the service life of heat exchange tubes of a steam generator based on methods of linear and nonlinear summation of damage, taking into account operating parameters and the type of the main aging process;

Asymptotic methods for solving the problem of equipment elements reaching a limit state: in the model of droplet impact erosion under conditions of two-phase coolant flows, in methods for summing damage in the problem of estimating the service life of steam generators;

A method for optimizing the service life of a power unit based on an economic criterion that takes into account the divergence of costs and results, the reliability characteristics of the unit’s equipment and the cost of repairs and replacements of equipment during operation.

Reliability of scientific statements is confirmed by a strict justification of models describing the processes of operability of secondary circuit equipment with the correct formulation of definitions of limit states of equipment, methods and provisions, as well as the correspondence of a number of results to operational data.

Regulations, submitted for defense

1. The significance of factors influencing the aging processes of metals and necessary for the individual application of physical and statistical models for assessing and managing the service life of secondary circuit equipment.

4. Method for predicting the resource of steam generator tubes in nuclear power plants based on the theory of stochastic filtration.

5. Method for optimizing the volume and frequency of thickness measurements of NPP equipment elements, taking into account their categorization according to the ECI rate.

6. Neural network model of a generalized accounting of operating factors for predicting the ECI rate in nuclear power plant equipment elements.

7. A method for optimal management of the service life of a power unit, taking into account the divergence of costs and results.

Practical value of the results The work consists in the fact that, based on the above theoretical principles and methods, algorithms and engineering techniques have been developed that make it possible to substantiate the values of technological parameters for managing equipment resource. The calculations carried out using the developed methods made it possible to assess the resource indicators of the secondary circuit equipment of nuclear power plants with VVER-1000, VVER-440 and RBMK-1000 reactors at the Kola, Smolensk, Kalinin, Balakovo NPPs and to develop recommendations for their management.

Scope of results – resource management of steam generator tubes, heat exchange condenser tubes, pipeline elements made of pearlitic steels.

Testing and implementation of results

The work was carried out within the framework of the themes of the Energoatom concern

Diagnostics, equipment life, steam generators, quality. Feasibility study for the replacement of copper-containing equipment KPT for the head unit of VVER-1000 (power unit No. 3 of BlkNPP),

Fundamental problems of decommissioning of nuclear power plants,

Finalization of the “Norms for permissible thicknesses of pipeline elements made of carbon steel AS” RD EO” and “Development of a guideline document for assessing the technical condition of equipment elements and pipelines subject to erosion-corrosion wear”;

A comprehensive program of measures to prevent destruction and increase the operational erosion and corrosion resistance of nuclear power plant pipelines. No. AES PRG-550 KO7 of the Energoatom concern on the topic “Calculation and experimental substantiation of the volumes and frequency of control of erosion-corrosion wear of pipelines of nuclear power plants with VVER-1000 reactor plant”,

Processing and analysis of the results of thickness measurements of pipeline elements of units 1-3 of the Smolensk NPP.

The dissertation materials were presented and discussed at the following international and all-Russian conferences:

1. System problems of reliability, mathematical modeling and information technologies, Moscow-Sochi, 1997, 1998.

2. NPP safety and personnel training, Obninsk, 1998, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007

3. 7th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering. Tokyo, Japan, April 19-23, 1999 ICONE-7.

4. Control and diagnostics of pipelines, Moscow, 2001.

5. PSAM 7 ESREL 04 International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, Berlin, 2004.

6. Mathematical ideas and their application to modern problems of natural science, Obninsk, 2006.

7. Safety, efficiency and economics of nuclear energy, Moscow, 2004, 2006.

8. MMR 2007 International Conference on Mathematical Methods in Reliability. Glasgow, Great Britain, 2007.

9. Problems of materials science in the design, manufacture and operation of equipment, St. Petersburg, 2008.

Publications. 57 scientific papers have been published on the topic of the dissertation, including 20 articles in scientific and technical journals, 15 articles in collections, 22 in conference proceedings.

The dissertation consists of 6 sections, introduction, conclusion, bibliography of 169 titles, five appendices - a total of 344 pp.

IN first chapter The main problems associated with the unreliability of secondary circuit equipment are considered: the main damage mechanisms, limit state criteria, economic problems associated with equipment replacements. An analysis of the factors limiting the service life of equipment was carried out (indicators of the water chemical regime (WCR) and their dynamics, dependence of the service life on operating factors), the individual nature of the aging of equipment within one unit and at different nuclear power plants was shown, the technical condition of the capacitor of the Black Nuclear Power Plant was assessed using an analogue method. The resource assessment was carried out according to the criterion of permissible jamming of 10% of condenser tubes with a “metal shortage” of more than 70% (Fig. 1). On the ordinate axis - the proportion of rejected pipes from the total number in %, on the abscissa axis - the time of the PPR minus 1990. The error of estimates is taken into account using the confidence interval, where - the value of the confidence interval (CI), β - confidence probability (β = 0.95 ), n- number of measurements (sample size), - quantile of Student's distribution, Dispersion" href="/text/category/dispersiya/" rel="bookmark">variance, . At n=3 when quantile t 3, 0.95 is equal to 2.35 , A https://pandia.ru/text/78/197/images/image002_31.gif" width="29 height=29" height="29">=0.97.

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The intersection of the upper limit of the CI with the acceptable level (in this case 10%) gives the lower limit of the resource. In the above case, the lower limit of the resource differs from the average by about six months.

The patterns and features of aging of heat exchange tubes (HET) of steam generators at various units and different nuclear power plants are noted. The regularities that appear on the HTF SG during operation include the aging of the material under the influence of damaging factors, which manifests itself in the form of growth of defects, mainly under deposits of corrosion products. The main mechanisms of damage to SG heat exchange tubes are pitting, pitting and stress corrosion cracking. These degradation mechanisms account for 68-85% of TOT damage from the total amount of damage. The initiation and development of HFC damage is facilitated by the presence of deposits of corrosion products on the outer surface of the HFC. Surface contamination also impairs heat exchange between the first and second circuits, which reduces steam production. The main relationships were identified between the number of plugged HSW and the amount of iron and copper in sediments, average specific surface contamination, and the location of HSW in the assembly. The corresponding approximations and estimates are given. For example, the dependence of the number of plugged HSW (SWW) on the average specific pollution is quite well described by a linear function (Fig. 2).

Figure 2. Empirical dependence of the amount of plugged HSW on the average specific pollution for 1PG-1 (a) and 1PG-3 (b) KlnNPP.

Individual factors are: aging intensity, distribution of the number of plugged HSW along the height of the tube sheet, preventive measures taken and their frequency, technical condition of the KPT equipment and their materials, water chemistry, kill criteria, etc..gif" width="129 height=38" height="38">.

Knowing the permissible level of pollution of the HOT for a given GHG (limit state criterion), it is possible to estimate the time until the process of growth of pollution first goes beyond the permissible limit. However, the forecast based on the average trend is not a conservative estimate. Therefore, it is necessary to estimate the error of the obtained estimates by constructing a confidence interval.

https://pandia.ru/text/78/197/images/image019_16.gif" width="337" height="232 src=">

Figure 3. Approximation of contamination for 1PG-3 KlnNPP

Calculation with different initial values of residual average specific contamination gives the following values of the lower limit of the 95% CI for the time of exceeding the permissible limits specified in table. 1.

Table 1

Values of the inter-flushing period at various values of residual contamination for 1PG-3

Initial value, g/m2	Acceptable level d, g/m2	Between flushing period, thousand hours

An analysis of statistical and physical-statistical approaches to assessing the residual life of equipment is given, a review of models for calculating the resource characteristics of elements is given, and an analysis of the effectiveness of various resource management measures is carried out, which determines the significance of the current factors.

In second chapter the main problems associated with optimizing the service life of electric power plants are considered: selection of economic criteria, ranking of equipment, development of a payment flow model, etc.; a solution to the problem of detecting a disorder in an observed random process associated with the onset of aging is given.

The decision-making criteria “life extension – decommissioning” are determined by the annual costs of maintaining the nuclear power plant, modernization and replacement of equipment, and the amount of electricity generated during this period. At the same time, guaranteeing proper safety conditions is an absolute requirement during the operation of any nuclear power plant, regardless of its age. The choice of the NPV (net present value) indicator as an optimization criterion is logical and methodologically sound. This integral criterion compares indicators at different times by discounting
, takes into account both economic and technical components. Being integral, i.e., taking into account the entire history of operation of the unit, NPV reflects the true relationship between investments in electricity production (costs) and the cost of electricity produced (result).

Net present value is defined as the sum of current effects for the entire calculation period, reduced to the initial step. The mathematical formulation of the problem of determining the service life according to the selected criterion is as follows:

https://pandia.ru/text/78/197/images/image021_16.gif" width="169" height="51">

Q(T)<QN,

Where k– time in years (may be less than one), N– calculation horizon; CFk– effect (payment flow) achieved on k-th step; ik– discount factor at the step k; Q(T) is the safety level of the power unit, expressed by the number of incidents per year and in general depends on time; QN– standard level of safety.

Basic approaches have been developed to create a procedure for assessing the service life of NPP electrical components - an express method based on taking into account integral costs, which makes it possible to obtain an estimate of the service life (SS), taking into account both the economic component of operation and the technical condition of the electrical unit - and a method for assessing the operating life of an individual equipment, developed in the form of a Markov model, including the cost of repairs, replacements of equipment, its reliability characteristics that change during operation, as well as the cost of downtime associated with the maintenance of this equipment. The decision to stop operating the unit is made based on an analysis of information about the equipment included in the group of critical elements, i.e., those important from a safety point of view.

Formula for calculating the cost of operating a power unit ( n types of equipment) has the form

PW(t) – probability that the equipment is in working condition;

CWF– cost of replaced equipment or part thereof,

CFW– cost of restoration work;

λ i(t) - equipment failure rate ;

μ i- intensity of recovery after failure.

CW =WITHE× N×D t, Where N– block power, C.E.– annual electricity tariff.

The resulting formula for estimating the cost of operating a power unit makes it possible to optimize its service life, taking into account all other aspects of operation.

To apply this approach, the essential issues are the selection of equipment, its ranking according to the duration of downtime, the cost and significance of measures to manage the resource of specific equipment.

One of the most typical tasks in diagnosing the technical condition of various NPP equipment is solving the problem of early recognition of equipment malfunction based on analysis of changes in the controlled parameter. The effectiveness of the control system largely depends on the algorithm for processing information about the state of the controlled equipment. To obtain the most reliable decision about the presence of a process disorder, it is proposed to analyze not the original random low-frequency process ξ t, and a function from it:

Weight coefficient" href="/text/category/vesovoj_koyeffitcient/" rel="bookmark">weight coefficients. After this, you can count the number of intersections by the process η t constant level S on a sliding time interval. The task has been set to optimize the level for detecting disorder; For the first time, an analytical solution was obtained for the joint distribution density of the envelope of the first kind and its derivative; For the first time, the expression for the mathematical expectation of the number of intersections was analytically obtained N for the first derivative of the measured random process https://pandia.ru/text/78/197/images/image026_2.jpg" width="408" height="224">

Figure 4. Graphical display of the objective function

Third section is devoted to the issues of predicting the service life of secondary circuit equipment using damage summation methods. Criteria for the limit state and models for the accumulation of damage in the material of the equipment of the condensate-feed tract are considered.

Aging of the material of one or another NPP equipment is accompanied by the accumulation of damage in the equipment material, which leads to a reduction in the residual life. A residual life assessment model was developed based on the damage summation method proposed in the works

The relative age of a metal (i.e., accumulated quasi-static damage from prolonged exposure to slowly changing stresses, temperatures, and corrosive environments) can be defined as the sum of the ratios of the operating times of equipment under known conditions ti to the calculated maximum operating time before failure of this equipment under similar conditions τ i:

where each individual damage corresponds to the operation of the equipment for some time ti with known operational parameters on which the time to failure τ depends i, and ω( t) - the relative age of the metal, due to operation in several modes (where n- number of modes at a time t)

Then the probability of failure-free operation (FFO) can be defined as the probability of non-failure ω( t) per level d=1, i.e. ω(0)=0, and ω( τ )=1.

A probabilistic measure of damage has been introduced for various aging processes. Thin-walled equipment, which includes SG heat exchange tubes, is characterized by nonlinear effects of damage accumulation. Models of nonlinear summation of damage for estimating residual life are built on the basis of works.

Most problems of assessing resource characteristics relate to the problem of crossing a level by a stochastic process of damage accumulation. An asymptotic approach to calculating the probability of failure-free operation based on the CPT is proposed. The method is applied to accumulated damage in bends of steam pipelines with a two-phase coolant due to droplet impact erosion and in heat exchange tubes of a steam generator under conditions of stress corrosion cracking.

The model of droplet impact erosion is built on the basis of a phenomenological approach, when the damaging effect of moisture droplets in a two-phase flow leads to erosive damage to the surface in a very small volume. The intensity of this process depends on the flow rate, pressure, temperature, steam humidity, and material properties. Microdamage caused by the impact of one drop is, in general, a random variable.

November 17

Order of Rostechnadzor dated October 15, 2015 N 410

“On approval of federal norms and regulations in the field of use of atomic energy” Requirements for resource management of equipment and pipelines of nuclear power plants. Basic provisions"

Registered with the Ministry of Justice of Russia on November 11, 2015 N 39666.

Requirements for resource management of equipment and pipelines of nuclear power plants have been approved.

The adopted rules apply to all units of equipment and pipelines classified in the design of a nuclear power plant (NP) unit as elements of hazard class 1; all units of equipment of single and small-scale production and reference units of pipelines and NPP equipment classified in the NPP unit design as elements of safety class 2; separate units of pipelines and equipment classified in the NPP unit design as elements of safety class 3, units of pipelines and equipment in the manner established by the operating organization of the power plant in agreement with the developer of the reactor plant and NPP designs.

The order establishes:

preparatory measures for resource management of equipment and pipelines of nuclear power plants during design and construction;
resource management in the production of equipment and pipelines for nuclear power plants and the construction of nuclear power plants;
resource management of equipment and pipelines of nuclear power plants at the stage of operation of the nuclear power plant;
resource management at the stage of extended service life of equipment and pipelines of nuclear power plants;
resource management of equipment and pipelines of nuclear power plants during decommissioning of a nuclear power plant unit.

The appendices to the order contain the basic terms and definitions used in the rules, as well as a scheme for resource management of equipment and pipelines of nuclear power plants at the operating stage.

The review was prepared by specialists of the Consultant Plus company and provided by the Consultant Plus Sverdlovsk Region company - the information center of the Consultant Plus Network in Yekaterinburg and the Sverdlovsk region

A.P. Livinsky
(OAO RAO UES of Russia, Russia)

The electric power industry, being a basic sector of the Russian economy, meets the internal needs of the national economy and the population for electricity, as well as the export of electricity to the CIS countries and non-CIS countries.

In order to make the most efficient use of natural fuel and energy resources and the potential of the energy sector for the long-term, stable supply of the country's economy and population with all types of energy, the Government of the Russian Federation approved the Energy Strategy of Russia for the period until 2020, which provides for:

Reliable energy supply to the country’s economy and population;

Preserving the integrity and development of the country’s Unified Energy System, its integration with other energy associations on the Eurasian continent;

Increasing operational efficiency and ensuring sustainable development of the electric power industry based on new, modern technologies;

Reducing harmful effects on the environment.

In the current version of the Energy Strategy, more moderate levels of electricity consumption have been adopted, the pace of development of non-traditional and renewable energy sources, and primarily hydropower, has been increased,
more realistic commissioning of generating capacities and corresponding investments.

In a favorable scenario, the development of the Russian electric power industry is focused on a scenario that involves the accelerated implementation of socio-economic reforms with a growth rate of gross domestic product production of up to 5-6% per year and a corresponding sustainable growth in electricity consumption of 2.0-2.5% per year (Fig. . 1). As a result, electricity consumption will reach 1290 billion kWh by 2020 in the optimistic scenario, and 1145 billion kWh in the moderate scenario.

Taking into account the projected volumes of demand for electricity, under the optimistic scenario, total production (Fig. 2) will increase compared to the reporting year 2002 by 1.2 times by 2010 (up to 1070 billion kWh) and by more than 1.5 times
by 2020 (up to 1365 billion kWh); with a moderate version of economic development, respectively, by 1.14 (up to 1015 billion kWh) and 1.36 times (up to 1215 billion kWh).

Rice. 1. Forecast of electricity consumption levels in accordance with the Energy Strategy
Russia for the period until 2020

Rice. 2. Electricity production at Russian power plants (with moderate and optimistic options)

Rice. 3. Installed capacity of power plants in Russia (with moderate and optimistic options)

Production potential Russian electric power industry (Fig. 3) currently consists of power plants with a total installed capacity of about
215 million kW, including nuclear power plants - 22 and hydroelectric power stations - 44 million kW, the rest is heat power and power transmission lines of all voltage classes with a total length of 2.5 million km. More than 90% of this potential is united in the Unified Energy System (UES) of Russia, which covers the entire inhabited territory of the country from the western borders to the Far East.

According to the adopted Energy Strategy, there will be no significant changes in the structure of generating capacities: thermal power plants will remain the basis of the electric power industry; their share will remain at the level of 66-67%, nuclear power plants - 14%, the share of hydroelectric power stations will remain virtually unchanged (20%).

Currently, the main share (about 70%) in the structure of generating capacities is accounted for by thermal power plants operating on fossil fuels (Fig. 4). The capacity of thermal power plants as of January 1, 2003 was about 147 million kW. Almost 80% of the generating capacity of thermal power plants in the European part of Russia (including the Urals) runs on gas and fuel oil. In the eastern part of Russia, more than 80% burn coal. There are 36 thermal power plants in Russia with a capacity of 1000 MW or more, including 13 with a capacity of 2000 MW or more. The capacity of the largest thermal power plant in Russia - Surgutskaya GRES-2 - is 4800 MW.

Large power units are widely used in thermal power plants
150-1200 MW. The total number of such power units is 233 with a total capacity of about 65,000 MW.

A significant share of thermal power plants (about 50% of capacity) are CHP plants, which are distributed throughout the country.

The main part (more than 80%) of the TPP equipment (boilers, turbines, generators) was put into operation in the period from 1960 to 1985 and has now worked for 20 to 45 years (Fig. 5). Therefore, the aging of power equipment is becoming a key problem in the modern electric power industry, which will only get worse in the future.

Starting from 2005, there will be an increase in the volume of turbine equipment that has exhausted its service life (Fig. 6). Thus, by 2010, 102 million kW (43%) of the currently operating equipment of thermal power plants and hydroelectric power stations will exhaust its park resource, and by 2020 - 144 million kW, which will amount to more than 50% of the installed capacity.

The decommissioning of turbine equipment generating fleet resources under the conditions of the projected demand for electricity and power will lead to the formation of a power deficit of 70 GW at the 2005 level (30% of demand), which by 2010 will already amount to 124 GW (50% of demand) and by 2020 - 211 GW (75% of power demand) (Fig. 7).

Rice. 5. Age structure of installed turbine equipment at Russian thermal power plants

Rice. 6. Forecast of the volume of turbine equipment exhausting its fleet life

Rice. 7. Dynamics of Russia’s balance in power

Rice. 8. Main directions for covering the projected power shortage

Ensuring the increase in demand for generating capacity is possible through the following main measures:

² extending the service life of existing hydroelectric power plants, nuclear power plants and a significant number of thermal power plants by replacing only the main components and parts;

- completion of facilities that are in a high degree of readiness;

- construction of new facilities in regions with shortages;

- modernization and technical re-equipment of thermal power plants using new, promising technical solutions.

To ensure the predicted levels of electricity and heat consumption in the optimistic and favorable scenarios, the commissioning of generating capacities at power plants in Russia (taking into account the need to replace and modernize equipment that has exhausted its service life) for the period 2003-2020. approximately 177 million kW are estimated (Fig. 9), including at HPPs and PSPPs - 11.2, at NPPs - 23, at thermal power plants - 143 (of which CCGT and GTU - 37 million kW), of which commissioning of new generating capacities - about 131.6 GW, the volume of replacement of worn-out equipment due to its technical re-equipment - 45.4 GW.

Power plant equipment resource management as a tool for forecasting the development of the electric power industry

A.P. Livinsky

- reliable energy supply to the country’s economy and population;
- maintaining the integrity and development of the country’s Unified Energy System, its integration with other energy associations on the Eurasian continent;
- increasing operational efficiency and ensuring sustainable development of the electric power industry based on new, modern technologies;
- reduction of harmful effects on the environment.

In the current version of the Energy Strategy, more moderate levels of electricity consumption have been adopted, the pace of development of non-traditional and renewable energy sources, and primarily hydropower, has been increased, more realistic commissioning of generating capacities and corresponding investments have been adopted.

In a favorable scenario, the development of the Russian electric power industry is focused on a scenario that involves the accelerated implementation of socio-economic reforms with a growth rate of gross domestic product production of up to 5-6% per year and a corresponding sustainable growth in electricity consumption of 2.0-2.5% per year (Fig. 1 ). As a result, electricity consumption will reach 1290 billion kWh by 2020 in the optimistic scenario, and 1145 billion kWh in the moderate scenario.

Taking into account the projected volumes of demand for electricity, under the optimistic scenario, total production (Fig. 2) will increase compared to the reporting year 2002 by 1.2 times by 2010 (up to 1070 billion kWh) and more than 1.5 times by 2020 (up to 1365 billion kWh); with a moderate version of economic development, respectively, by 1.14 (up to 1015 billion kWh) and 1.36 times (up to 1215 billion kWh).

Rice. 1.

Rice. 2. Electricity production at Russian power plants (with moderate and optimistic options)

Rice. 3.

The production potential of the Russian electric power industry (Fig. 3) currently consists of power plants with a total installed capacity of about 215 million kW, including nuclear power plants - 22 and hydroelectric power stations - 44 million kW, the rest is thermal power engineering and power transmission lines of all voltage classes with a total length of 2 .5 million km. More than 90% of this potential is united in the Unified Energy System (UES) of Russia, which covers the entire inhabited territory of the country from the western borders to the Far East.

Large power units of 150-1200 MW are widely used at thermal power plants. The total number of such power units is 233 with a total capacity of about 65,000 MW.

Rice. 4.

A significant share of thermal power plants (about 50% of capacity) are CHP plants, which are distributed throughout the country.

Rice. 5.

Rice. 6. Forecast of the volume of turbine equipment exhausting its fleet life

Rice. 7. Dynamics of Russia's power balance

Rice. 8.

electric power turbine equipment

Ensuring the increase in demand for generating capacity is possible through the following main measures:

extending the service life of existing hydroelectric power plants, nuclear power plants and a significant number of thermal power plants by replacing only the main components and parts;

completion of facilities that are in a high degree of readiness;

construction of new facilities in regions with shortages;

modernization and technical re-equipment of thermal power plants using new, promising technical solutions.

Rice. 9.

Rice. 10.

In the moderate version, inputs are estimated at approximately 121 million kW, including 7 at hydroelectric power stations and pumped storage power plants, 17 at nuclear power plants, and 97 at thermal power plants (of which 31.5 million kW are combined cycle gas turbine units and gas turbine units).

At the same time, the total average commissionings for Russia as a whole over the five-year period from 1991 to 2002 amounted to only 7 GW.

An important factor in the development of the electric power industry is the possibility of investment for new energy construction and technical re-equipment of existing power plants and electrical networks, including the complete replacement of equipment that has exhausted its service life. The investment needs of the electric power industry for the period up to 2020, taking into account nuclear power plants, depending on the development option, are estimated at 140-205 billion US dollars, including 100-160 billion dollars for generation (Fig. 10). Ensuring the growth of capital investments in the electric power industry, bringing them to 4.0 billion dollars per year by 2005 and to 6.0 billion dollars per year by 2010 (excluding nuclear power plants), is possible by introducing an investment component in the tariff for electric and thermal energy, creating favorable conditions for attracting foreign and domestic private investment through government guarantees, tax incentives, allocation of direct public investment, etc.

At the same time, in 2002, the volume of investments in the electric power industry, including nuclear power plants, amounted to $2.6 billion. In 2003, the expected volume of investments will be $3.6 billion.

In general, total investments in the Holding for the five-year period from 1999 to 2003 amounted to $9 billion, or just over 4% of the investment requirement for the period until 2020.

To ensure reliable power supply to consumers, a significant share of equipment that has exhausted its service life must be retained in the power and electricity balances for the period until 2020 (Fig. 11): in the period until 2010, the volume of such equipment will increase to 93 GW with a subsequent reduction by 2020 up to 40 GW.

Rice. eleven.

Ensuring the predicted demand for electricity and power requires maintaining the functionality of the equipment after it reaches its service life.

This puts the task of resource management of power plant equipment at a qualitatively new level. Solving this problem requires the creation of a data bank that makes it possible to predict the condition of equipment, the development of a system of measures to maintain the operability of equipment and control of their implementation, and the linking of proposals for extending the life of equipment with future balances of power and electricity.

In Fig. Figure 12 shows the current scheme for organizing equipment service life extension.

Rice. 12.

The park resource is understood as the operating time of thermal power equipment elements of the same type in design, materials and operating conditions, which ensures their trouble-free operation while complying with standard requirements for metal inspection, operation and repair of power plants.

To date, there has been an avalanche-like growth in capacity that has exhausted its park resource. The required volumes of replacement of equipment and their components were not provided with appropriate funding. There was a need to clarify the values of the park resource in relation to specific equipment through a number of studies and activities.

In this regard, it was proposed to switch to an individual resource, i.e. the assigned resource of a specific object, determined taking into account the actual properties of the metal, geometric dimensions and operating conditions.

Upon expiration of the design service life of the equipment, taking into account the limitations established by regulatory documents, an analysis of its condition is carried out, based on the results of which a decision is made to replace or extend the service life of the equipment until the assigned individual resource is exhausted, which is determined by a set of measures within the framework of the service life extension system.

The current system in the electric power industry for extending the service life of equipment is based on:

1. On Federal laws:

“On industrial safety of hazardous production facilities”;

“On technical regulation”;

“On licensing of certain types of activities.”

2. According to the Decrees of the Government of the Russian Federation:

“On the procedure and conditions for using technical devices at a hazardous production facility”;

“On the procedure for organizing and implementing production control over compliance with industrial safety requirements at a hazardous production facility”;

“On measures to ensure industrial safety of hazardous production facilities on the territory of the Russian Federation”;

3. Based on the regulatory documents of the Gosgortekhnadzor of Russia:

“General rules of industrial safety for organizations operating in the field of industrial safety of hazardous production facilities”;

“Rules for conducting industrial safety examinations”;

“Regulations on the procedure for extending the period of safe operation of technical

any devices, equipment and structures at hazardous production facilities”;

“Standard instructions for metal control and extending the service life of critical elements of boilers, turbines and pipelines of thermal power plants.”

Preparing a decision on extending the service life, taking into account all options, requires a serious technical and economic analysis based on the technical condition of the power plant and the prospects for its development (technical re-equipment).

In accordance with the requirements of the Standard Instructions... and Regulations..., JSC-energo and JSC-power plants, independently or with the involvement of organizations, monitor the technical condition of equipment and conduct research on the strength characteristics of the metal.

Such studies are usually carried out by expert organizations (Fig. 13). Their conclusions together with the decision of JSC-energo and JSC-power plant

about extending the service life of equipment are sent in accordance with

with Standard Instructions..., in OJSC RAO UES of Russia. The Department of Scientific and Technical Policy and Development of JSC RAO UES of Russia, with the involvement of industry research organizations, analyzes the submitted materials and makes a conclusion on the possibility and timing of further operation of the equipment. Based on the decision of JSC-energo and JSC-power plants, the conclusion of a specialized organization, the Department of Scientific and Technical Policy and Development of JSC RAO UES of Russia approves (or does not approve, or approves with restrictions) the decision of JSC-energo and JSC-power plants on the possibility and terms of further operation of the equipment.

Rice. 13.

The approval of JSC RAO UES of Russia of the decision of the JSC-energo and JSC-power plant is the basis for the Gosgortechnadzor of Russia to register the conclusion of the industrial safety examination and grant the power plant the right to further operate the equipment.

The main directions for improving the organization of work to extend the service life of equipment (Fig. 14) will be related to:

- with the improvement of the directive (determined by the documents of the Gosgortekhnadzor of Russia) part of these works;
- giving economic interest in the results of these works, including work to determine the commercial resource and reliability of the power plant for various organizations (CO-CDC, automatic telephone exchange, equipment manufacturing plants, etc.).

To achieve this, it is planned to improve the organization of the extension in the following years.

1. Monitoring the condition of metal and equipment of thermal power plants is entrusted to testing laboratories and non-destructive testing laboratories accredited by the Gosgortekhnadzor of Russia. Accreditation should be carried out taking into account the recommendations of the Department of Scientific and Technical Policy and Development of OJSC RAO UES of Russia, subsequently through the NP INVEL (Non-Profit Partnership “Innovations in the Electric Power Industry”).

Rice. 14.

2. The expert organization that reviews materials on extending the service life of equipment and makes a conclusion regarding service life must be independent and appointed by the Department of Scientific and Technical Policy and Development of OJSC RAO UES of Russia and subsequently by NP INVEL
3. The Department of Scientific and Technical Policy and Development of JSC RAO UES of Russia (hereinafter referred to as NP INVEL) must organize work to assess the commercial life and reliability of power plants and identify permanent organizations interested in such information.

From the presented materials it is clear that in the foreseeable future, given the lack of investment in new construction, the shortage of generating capacity will grow. The main source of its coverage will be extending the service life of existing equipment. To do this, it is necessary to develop an organizational mechanism for resource management, which must correspond to the new realities emerging in the electric power industry in connection with its reform. Important organizational aspects are the following:

improvement of regulatory and technical documentation to ensure reliable and safe operation of equipment;

monitoring the damageability of equipment, preparing standard technical and organizational solutions to extend the service life of equipment (circulars, information letters);

creation of a database on its operation;

reduction of costs for monitoring and repair of equipment.

All these measures will improve the resource management mechanism and make it an important tool for forecasting the further development of the electric power industry.

The first steps in this direction have already been taken. Thus, on the instructions of the DNTPiR OJSC RAO UES of Russia, the Teploelektroproekt Institute is preparing “Proposals for extending the service life of thermal power plant equipment beyond the park capacity,” which include:

- forecast of the technical condition of thermal power plants exhausting their park resource in the period until 2008;
- development of station proposals on technical measures to extend the life of equipment beyond the park;
- assessment of financial costs for the implementation of measures to extend the life of equipment;
- organization of resource management of power plant equipment in the context of reforming the electric power industry.

As part of this work, a study was conducted of the condition of equipment in all seven regions of Russia with an installed capacity of 131.422 million kW. Its results are used in the development of a five-year corporate energy capacity balance for the period 2004-2008.

As the analysis showed, by 2008 the individual resource will be exhausted on equipment with an installed capacity of 10.929 million kW, which is 9.1% of the installed capacity of the thermal power plants of the RAO UES of Russia Holding. This will require significant investment in work to extend the life of the equipment.

A particularly large amount of work to extend equipment life and costs falls on the UPS of the Urals, one of the most energy-intensive regions of Russia. For the period 2004-2008. the cost of measures to extend the resource in this region will be 6567.7 million rubles, the volume of extended capacity will be 5034 MW, and the peak of the required investments will occur in 2007-2008.

In general, at thermal power plants in Russia for the period 2004-2008. it will be necessary to carry out a set of measures to ensure the extension of equipment life, for a total amount, including VAT, 19.58 billion rubles. (at current prices). At the same time, the specific cost of extended capacity will be 1,792.1 rubles/kW (58.8 dollars/kW).

When forecasting power balances for a longer period (10-15-20 years), additional research should be conducted to determine the nature of changes in the costs of extending the service life of thermal power plant equipment.

NPP equipment resource management. To resource management of equipment and pipelines. dissertations for an academic degree

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November 17