The Southern Kuril Islands are a taboo topic. Putin decided to give the Kuril Islands to the Japanese...And they will swallow everything, as usual.
They forbade our Initiative Group “Against Japan's Claims on the Southern Kuriles” to hold pickets and rallies, refused our 10 applications and explained that we should not waste time, and there are problems with the premises for holding a press conference. It would seem that the Japanese Foreign Minister rushed to the Russian Federation about the Southern Kuril Islands, talked with Putin and Lavrov the day before yesterday and yesterday, and information has already leaked about the transfer of Shikotan Island and a bunch of islands of the Lesser Kuril Ridge (Habomai) to the Japanese - and again not a sound in the media. I watched Vladimir Solovyov’s talk show on the Russia-1 TV channel with the participation of noted patriots, but not a word about the islands, and yet their surrender is a deafening geopolitical event. I looked through today's newspapers "Rossiyskaya Gazeta" and "Moskovsky Komsomolets" - there is not a line about these important Saturday-Sunday negotiations with the Japanese on the "territorial issue"
Yes, there is no “territorial issue” imposed by the Japanese side! The Southern Kuril Islands are an inalienable part of Russian territory due to our victory in the war with Japan. Why wag, make excuses, repent! We must declare once and for all that Russia’s sovereignty over the Southern Kuril Islands is unshakable. The territory is like a body, and if you let me cut off a finger, they will taste the blood and rush to gut it from all sides, it’s the ABC, political behavior unchanged since the time of Abel and Cain.
Knowledgeable people say that the surrender of the Southern Kuril Islands is Putin’s personal initiative, his kind of special operation, a new KhPP. And as an excuse, he refers to the ill-fated Khrushchev Declaration of 1956, that is, he turns the arrow on the commies. And we, idiots, cannot understand the highest interests of the state.
No way! And what state interests, and not selfish-comprador deals, were behind countless betrayals since the time of Gorbachev? What statist meaning is behind the secretly carried out surrender of the richest waters of the Barents Sea to the Norwegians in 2012 (see the note Putin and Medvedev gave Norway a shelf in the Barents Sea)? What about Putin’s surrender of strategic islands on the Amur River opposite Khabarovsk to the Chinese? What about the surrender of our bridgeheads in Lourdes, Cam Ranh, space (Mir station), Georgia? I’ll keep silent about the CCP in Novorossiya and the Minsk agreements...
So we, independent-minded citizens of the Russian Federation, have the right to ask and demand, and it is better to take our arguments into account; there are no infallible people and cannot be.
Intimidated federal politicians and the newly elected deputies of the State Duma of the Russian Federation hid in the bushes. But a wave of bewilderment and even indignation is rising on Sakhalin. Here on the Sakhalin.info website a material by Kirill Yasko was published. Far Eastern scientists and Sakhalin deputies called on Vladimir Putin not to give Japan “not an inch of land” (10:54 December 5, 2016, updated 15:34 December 5, 2016):
“Representatives of the scientific community and Sakhalin deputies are confident that all the talk about economic and investment cooperation between Russia and Japan is nothing more than an attempt to get the coveted “disputed territories”; no peace treaty is needed to develop relations between the two countries (“this is a clear anachronism” ), and all assurances of its necessity are nothing more than a propaganda ploy by politicians in the Land of the Rising Sun. This position, as well as an emotional appeal not to give Japan an inch of Russian land, is contained in an open letter to the president Russian Federation, signed by almost three dozen scientists and several Sakhalin deputies. The extensive list of signatories included, in particular, representatives of the regional Duma Alexander Bolotnikov, Svetlana Ivanova, Evgeny Lotin, Alexander Kislitsin, Yuri Vygolov, Viktor Todorov, Galina Podoynikova, Doctor of Historical Sciences, full member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Vladimir Myasnikov, representative of the Morskoy state university named after Nevelskoy Boris Tkachenko, doctor biological sciences, professor Valery Efanov, chairman of the Sakhalin regional branch of the Russian Geographical Society Sergey Ponomarev.
— On the eve of your upcoming visit to Japan, we address you with this open letter. The development of the situation around Japan's territorial claims to the Russian southern Kuril Islands, which official Tokyo has been making against our country over the past sixty years - since the conclusion of the Soviet-Japanese Joint Declaration in 1956 - prompted us to once again outline the fundamental provisions showing the groundlessness and harmfulness of any concessions on the issue of Russian sovereignty over the Kuril Islands, including their southern group (Kunashir, Iturup, and the Lesser Kuril Ridge, which includes the island of Shikotan), no matter what “veiled” schemes this is clothed in, the letter says. — We proceed from the firm and repeatedly stated position of the Russian leadership on the legality of the entry of the Kuril archipelago into Russia following the Second World War, in particular, your latest statement about the indisputability of Russian sovereignty over all the Kuril Islands.
The authors of the letter are concerned about the persistent attempts of the Japanese leadership to establish joint economic activities on the disputed islands, which is nothing more than an attempt to achieve satisfaction of their territorial claims to our country “by any means.” The two countries do not need a peace treaty either. After all, scientists remind the president, it is not concluded between us and Germany - nevertheless, mutually beneficial cooperation between the two countries is growing stronger day by day.
— The state of war between our countries ended back in 1956; all the agreements necessary for the development of normal good-neighborly, including economic, relations were concluded. It is obvious that for Japan, a peace treaty is now not a goal, but a means of realizing its selfish and historically or legally unfounded territorial claims to our country, which, we repeat, has been repeatedly stated by the leadership of the Russian Federation, the letter continues. “Any rash step at the upcoming negotiations in Tokyo would have irreversible fatal consequences for Russia. But in political terms, any concessions to Japanese territorial advances or promises thereof will certainly lead to the activation of revanchist forces in Japan, which, as is known, make claims not only on the group of southern islands, but also on the entire Kuril archipelago, as well as on the southern half of Sakhalin.
In addition, scientists assure the president, according to the Constitution, the territory of Russia is integral and inalienable, which also does not allow sacrificing a single “island, not a single inch of our native land.” All the “yen rains”, grandiose investment projects and underwater energy rings are nothing more than sweet dreams of midnight, designed to blur the eyes and soften the hearts.
— Dear Vladimir Vladimirovich, we hope that during your negotiations with the Japanese side you will proceed from the inviolability of Russian sovereignty over the Kuril Islands and from the fact that economic cooperation with Japan, as with any other foreign state in this region, perhaps on the basis of mutual benefit without any connection with political demands and references to events of the long past,” the authors admonish the president. — Any agreement with Japan, as well as the development of Russian-Japanese good neighborliness in general, should be the result of recognition by both countries of stable and clear borders that emerged as a result of the Second World War. There is no other way to resolve the territorial dispute between the two sides and there should not be.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to Tokyo is scheduled for December 14-15. The list of topics for the official trip, published by the Russian Foreign Ministry, includes issues of bilateral cooperation, as well as the implementation of joint projects in the energy sector, the development of small and medium-sized businesses, and industrialization Far East, expansion of the export base, first outlined in the “Cooperation Plan” developed in the Land of the Rising Sun in May of this year. Vladimir Putin’s visit to Japan can be considered a kind of result of the “new policy” of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, aimed at developing relations between the two countries.
As the authors of the letter later added, the ex-governor of the Sakhalin region, Dr. economic sciences, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Valentin Fedorov, Doctor of Technical Sciences Vladimir Pishchalnik, as well as a number of other persons. The total number of people who left autographs under the appeal to the president thus exceeded 40 people.
anonymous 17:32 today
Our grandfathers lay down here with their breasts, and they just give it to the Japanese
Pitsuri 17:28 today
We won’t give it up, we’ll live on our own, everything is ours, especially for those who were born on Sakhalin.
and so on 16:58 today
What about the rest of the “servants of the people”? Where is their principled position?
vivisektorrr 16:51 today
But around each given “bump” they will draw a 12-mile line of territorial waters and a 200-mile line of economic waters. Around each one.
(Added after 2 minutes)
And it will be all Japanese.
Why can't Russia afford to meet Japan's territorial claims halfway? This question was answered by RIA Novosti by the director of the Institute of Far Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Sergei Luzyanin and the director of the Center for the Study of the Middle East and Central Asia Semyon Bagdasarov.
1.
The islands undoubtedly belong to Russia, says Semyon Bagdasarov.
“There are many treaties and agreements, often they contradict each other. But the main thing is still different: yes, Russia occupied these islands by force. But first, during Russo-Japanese War, Japan also took them away from Russia by force. These are our islands that were once annexed to Russian Empire, and giving them away is pointless,” says the expert.
According to him, there is no question of Russia giving any country at least part of its territory, including the Kuril Islands. If you give in to Tokyo's demands, it will cause irreparable damage to your authority Russian state, says Semyon Bagdasarov.
2.
The transfer of at least one island to Japan will create a dangerous precedent in East Asia for revising the results of World War II, Sergei Luzyanin is convinced.
“In particular, this concerns the documents of the San Francisco Peace Conference of 1951, when an agreement was signed between the countries of the anti-Hitler coalition and Japan limiting the sovereignty of Tokyo exclusively to the Japanese islands - there is no talk of any Kuril Islands there,” he says.
Creating such a precedent may have dangerous consequences for the whole world and, in any case, does not in any way meet Russian interests, the expert emphasizes.
3.
“The transfer of part of the Kuril Islands to Japan will indirectly mean a small tactical victory for the United States, which was, is and will be a military and political ally of Japan,” says Sergei Luzyanin.
Despite the fact that Tokyo demonstrates its independence foreign policy, Washington still has many levers with which it can always put pressure on its ally. Despite the fact that in this alliance, Japan is always a follower - at least due to constitutional restrictions that do not allow this country to increase its defense budget, he believes.
“The transfer of the islands to Japan will be a kind of gift not only to Japan, but also to the United States, a tangible psychological blow to Russia,” says Luzyanin.
4.
Both experts agree that Russia’s abandonment of two or more Kuril Islands will weaken the country’s regional security.
“The Soviet Union had a powerful defense system in the east, which stretched from the Kuril Islands to Vladivostok and beyond. The objects of this system were based, among other things, on the Kuril Islands. During the collapse of the USSR, it was destroyed. But if we abandon the islands now, Russia will finally lose the opportunity re-creation similar system protecting the eastern borders of the country,” says Semyon Bagdasarov.
“The islands are, among other things, also strategic straits; there are Russian military bases nearby, which are now being strengthened and expanded in the wake of the general modernization of the country’s defense forces. And the cession of part of the islands could seriously undermine the strengthening process Russian system security in this part of the Pacific Ocean,” says Sergei Luzyanin.
5.
“In the coastal waters of the Kuril Islands there are enormous marine resources - fish, seafood. Why on earth should this be given to someone?” - Semyon Bagdasarov is perplexed.
“The transfer of the islands will inevitably affect the volume of marine biological resources that Russia owns. Losing a basin so rich in them is simply an unacceptable waste, especially in the difficult current economic conditions,” agrees Sergei Luzyanin.
6.
The population of the Kuril Islands is small, but it is Russian citizens, and it is unacceptable to create a situation in which they become hostages of interstate disputes, Semyon Bagdasarov is convinced.
“The joint development of the islands is for God’s sake. But this process must be approached with caution, just as the development of the Far Eastern lands by Chinese citizens must be approached with caution. Such projects must be approached very carefully legislative framework to avoid a situation where local residents They might end up as second-class citizens there,” he says.
According to Bagdasarov, first of all, we need to take care of how to populate these lands not with foreigners, but with Russians. He sees one of the options as providing land plots throughout the Far East to compatriots who want, but cannot, leave the national states formed after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
“On the one hand, there will undoubtedly be enthusiasm from pro-Western liberals. But, on the other hand, there will also undoubtedly be indignation from nationalist groups, especially the far left. Which will ultimately create unnecessary tension and may not have the best effect on trust in the authorities,” - he says.
According to Luzyanin, when in 1956 Soviet Union promised to give Japan two islands, then the Khrushchev USSR was unlikely to be threatened by any waves of protest from the population. In today's Russia, the situation is fundamentally different, and this should never be forgotten, the expert believes.
Why does all the talk about the possible transfer of the Kuril Islands make no sense yet?
The Japanese seem to have already decided everything. Sami. They have already given themselves the Kuril Islands and are only expecting a formal announcement of this from the Russian President’s visit to Japan. At least, this is the psychological picture that prevails in today’s Japan, many observers say. After which they ask the question: is Vladimir Putan ready to make such an announcement? And what will be the disappointment of the Japanese when Russian President won't say anything about the transfer of the islands?
Or will he say? Maybe the Japanese know something that we Russians don’t know?
The main leitmotif in the Japanese press and Japanese discussions about the Kuril Islands is words about readiness to exchange investments for the islands. They call this the “zero option”: they say, the islands are ours anyway, but we need to sweeten the bitterness of the loss of territories for the Russians. Their economic situation is bad, so multi-billion dollar Japanese investments will come in handy for the Russians. And the icing on this cake will be the signing of a peace treaty, which will supposedly end the state of war between Japan and Russia.
And, in fact, what legal grounds do the Japanese have to challenge the ownership of the islands? What do they have besides constant stubborn pressure?
“The Japanese made a claim to the islands immediately after the conclusion of the San Francisco Treaty between the Allies and Japan, but about any legal grounds there is no need to say,” the scientific secretary of the Institute noted in a conversation with Tsargrad general history(IVI) RAS German Gigolaev. - But since the USSR did not sign this peace treaty with Japan then, in 1951, they made claims on this basis. Well, the ears, probably, as always, stick out from the US State Department - they asked the Japanese to put forward claims, and they did.”
That’s all the reason: give it back, because we want it, and the owner ordered it...
There were, however, voices that Tokyo might consider the possibility of signing a peace treaty without transferring four (more precisely, three in bulk) islands from the Kuril ridge. There were also voices that the Japanese government was ready to be satisfied with two of them. A version of this was published by the authoritative Japanese newspaper Kyodo, citing a source in the Cabinet of Ministers.
However, then these versions were refuted, and the picture remained the same: Japan should get everything! By the way, in the compromise option with two islands, the strategy is aimed at all four. It's purely a matter of tactics. The same article in Kyodo directly states this: the transfer of the two islands will be only the “first phase” of resolving the territorial issue. Likewise, the option of joint Russian-Japanese management of the southern part of the Kuril Islands is also eliminated: the government decisively denied the corresponding report of the Nikkei newspaper back in October.
Thus, Tokyo’s position remains unchanged, and any compromise options turn out to be useless and meaningless: the winner, as they say, takes all.
And the winner, of course, in any exchange of the islands for any financial “goodies” will be – and will be declared – the Japanese. For money is nothing more than money, and territory is always nothing less than territory. Let us remember what place Alaska occupies in the Russian national consciousness with the history of its sale. And it’s clear, it’s clear that in the middle of the 19th century it was an unprofitable, inconvenient land, practically not populated by Russians, which one way or another would have been taken away by the British or Americans simply by the fact of its gradual settlement. And what borders could have stopped them if gold had been discovered there earlier, when Alaska was still under Russian jurisdiction!
So it seemed right and inevitable - at least they received the money, and didn’t just lose the land - Alaska had to be sold. But does anyone thank Tsar Alexander II for this today?
Kurile Islands. Near the island of Kunashir. Fishing. Photo: Vyacheslav Kiselev/TASS
What can the Japanese give?
The only thing that in the public consciousness can justify the transfer of a country’s territory to another state is, perhaps, just an exchange for other territories. Like, for example, they did this with the Chinese, straightening the status of individual islands on the Amur. Yes, they gave away some land, but they also received it, and even a little more. But what lands can the Japanese give us in exchange? Is it the island of Okinawa with American military bases? It’s unlikely—it’s unlikely that among Japanese politicians there will be at least one capable of organizing such a “movement”...
So, Japan has no land for us. Do you have money?
And it depends on what kind. Recently, $10 billion was received for 19.5% of Rosneft shares. In total, the corporation promised “the overall effect, taking into account capitalized synergies between PJSC NK Rosneft and PJSC ANK Bashneft, in the amount of more than 1.1 trillion rubles ($17.5 billion), cash receipts to the budget in the fourth quarter 2016 will amount to 1,040 billion rubles ($16.3 billion).”
Igor Sechin called this deal the largest in the history of the country. But these are just shares of just one state corporation, of which there are far more than one in Russia. Moreover, as a number of observers noted, they were sold at a severe discount relative to the true value of the company.
Attention, question: how much money would Japan be willing to pay for our islands? Even if we are talking about a tenfold higher amount - with international reserves of 1.248 trillion dollars, she can find it relatively painlessly - is the game worth the candle? Which economic effect will Japan receive from the southern Kuril ridge? It is clear that there will certainly be some effect - at least from the exploitation of marine resources in the adjacent water area. But the problem is that the money is given - if given - by completely different people, far from the fishing industry.
Until the owner's first shout...
However, it’s not about the money – even if they actually gave it to us. What can you buy with them? The most valuable thing in the world today for Russia is technology and machines. Will the Japanese give them to us? You can be sure - no. Serious technologies are a closed subject for us for reasons of secrecy. A similar problem is with machine tools: yes, we need them after the total destruction of industry in the 90s, but the technology for their production is much more important. At one time, the USSR already made a mistake when, after the war, it exported German machine tools to its territory as requisition. Or rather, it was a necessary measure - in fact, there were no good machine tools in the USSR before the war, and even more so after. But in this way, the industry found itself tied to already obsolete models, but Germany, forcedly “undressed” in this regard, was forced, but extremely effectively, to modernize its machine park.
But even if we assume that the Japanese somehow bypass other people’s restrictions in this matter - and these are primarily American restrictions, dictated, by the way, by interests and national security - how long will they be able to pretend to be “noble”? Until the first independent movement of Russia, which Washington would not like. For example, the final capture of Aleppo. Coalition Western countries has already threatened us with new sanctions for this and has retained the previous ones. Will the Japanese be able to disobey their main allies? Never!
Thus, everything turns out simple: even if Russia gives up the islands in exchange for money or technology, very soon it will have neither one nor the other. And the islands, of course.
What does Russia lose?
From a purely material point of view, the Kudryavy rhenium volcano on Iturup Island alone, which annually releases $70 million worth of this valuable defense metal, makes the loss of the islands a very wasteful act. In Alaska, at least there was an excuse - the people of that time didn’t know Russian authorities neither about gold nor about oil in this distant land. In the Kuril Islands there is no such excuse.
What happens if you give up the islands?
“Nothing good will happen,” answers the historian Gigolaev. — The zone of international waters in the Sea of Okhotsk, which are not subject to our national jurisdiction, will immediately increase. Plus, several straits are blocked for our warships to exit through them. Sea of Okhotsk into the open ocean."
Of course, the production of fish and seafood in the surrounding waters provides considerable income. At the same time, there is also the right to limit this production in the Sea of Okhotsk for the same Japanese, Koreans, and Chinese, because the possession of four islands makes this sea internal to Russia.
But these are still pleasant, but small things against the background of what the loss of the islands could turn out to be in a geostrategic sense. This is what German Gigolaev pointed out.
The thing is that since the Second World War, Japan has not been a sovereign power in the full sense of the word. It is under US military and political control. And if tomorrow the Japanese receive at least one of the disputed islands, the day after tomorrow an American army may appear on it military base. For example, with a missile defense system, which, as Tsargrad has written more than once from the words of informed military experts, can quickly and painlessly be converted into a strike complex - with just a canopy of Tomahawk cruise missiles. And no one can stop the Americans, and especially not Tokyo.
By the way, they are not particularly eager to ban it. Moreover: the Prime Minister, the government, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs have already officially denied any existence of even attempts to make an exception from the security treaty with the United States in relation to the South Kuril Islands, if Russia agrees to give them up. As Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida said, the security treaty with the United States “applies and will extend to all territories and waters that are under the administrative control of Japan.”
Accordingly, if desired, the output to Pacific Ocean for the Russian navy, because here the straits, which today are controlled by the Russian military, are not frozen in winter, but will become American. This means that as soon as the threatened period comes - and who guarantees that this will never happen? – the Pacific Fleet can then be written off the balance sheet. After all, with the same success, a reputable naval group led by an aircraft carrier could be based at an American base somewhere on Iturup.
We agree: nice option invented by the Japanese (or, more likely, their American masters). Plots of land that are insignificant for the area of Russia immediately deprive Russia of rhenium, which is necessary for military production (in engine building, for example), and valuable marine resources, and access to the ocean during a threatened period.
And this - in the complete absence of reasonable argumentation for their rights to these islands! And if, under these conditions, Moscow decides to transfer the islands, then something worse will happen than the loss of fish, rhenium, and even access to the ocean.
Because it will become clear to everyone: pieces can be pulled out of Russia even without any reasonable justification. That is, you can pull pieces out of Russia! From Russia! Can! She herself allowed...
In Moscow they must feel their importance. Today they are trading a lot from Russia: for the “correct position” on Bashar al-Assad in Syria - investments and influence in the Middle East from Saudi Arabia; for the pacification of Donbass and the return of Crimea to Ukraine - the lifting of economic sanctions from the West; for, finally, the transfer of the Kuril Islands - economic and humanitarian assistance from Japan. And although Russia, according to President Putin, does not trade interests and territories, a compromise with Japan is still possible. Thanks in no small part to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
In defiance of the shouts from Washington, he set national interests above the “club” ones - being a member of the G8, Japan supported not only international sanctions against Russia, but also the exclusion of the country from the club of developed democracies. But in the G7, Tokyo was the only one trying to develop relations with Moscow, while Berlin and Paris acted as mediators in resolving the Ukrainian crisis, and Washington was distracted by the Middle East, in particular Syria.
In May, Abe brought his Russian counterpart an “eight-point plan.” Even leaks in the media did not reveal details, but in general terms they talked about cooperation in energy, industry, agriculture, high technologies, healthcare, in the field of humanitarian exchange, urban environment, as well as cooperation of small and medium-sized businesses. But even in this form, the layout was clear: Russia opens the Japanese market for its traditional export - raw materials, while Japan provides technology, knowledge and investment for the Russian Far East. Moscow responded to the proposal and presented 49 projects to partners.
Several months passed, and Abe again wanted to meet with Putin - this time at the second Eastern Economic Forum, which is taking place in Vladivostok. Japanese media, including The Japan Times, Mainichi Shinbum and NHK, have explained that Abe will arrive with a new way of thinking, called the “new approach.” What does it consist of?
In the 1990s, Tokyo made economic ties with Russia dependent on the resolution of the territorial dispute over the South Kuril Islands. By well-known formula- chairs in the morning, money in the evening. Then there were attempts to exchange not all the chairs at once, but one at a time, but the furniture went ahead anyway. Now the Japanese authorities have decided to take a risk: we will give you money to strengthen trust, and in the evening we want to get chairs.
Apparently, Abe set out to do something that none of his predecessors had been able to do. If Putin, whom he invited to visit his small homeland in Yamaguchi Prefecture, shares his desire, then Abe will go down in history as the prime minister who will proclaim in the Russian manner: “The Kuril Islands are ours!” He has already contradicted Washington with his too frequent visits to Russia, so he will not lose his will. But before the next negotiations, the Japanese prime minister once again showed how far he was ready to go: in the Japanese government he established a special position of commissioner for the development of relations with Russia, which was filled by Economics Minister Hiroshige Seko. Now Russia must accept the pass and respond by appointing a curator of joint projects for its part - this could be First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov or Minister of Economy Alexey Ulyukaev.
However, the “new thinking” has not completely outlived the old attitudes. As soon as the influential publication Mainichi Shinbum reported that residents of the Southern Kuril Islands would be allowed to live on the islands after Japan established sovereignty over them, general secretary Japanese cabinet minister Suga immediately denied the concession in question. But it is clear that, whatever the point in the dispute that has been going on for more than 70 years, Abe will not be alone in facing a dissenting elite and public.
Compromise or “freeze my ears”?
Japan's flirtations with Russia are explained by pragmatic goals: Tokyo, in addition to the islands, needs to wedge itself into the alliance of Moscow and Beijing so that the notorious turn to the East of Russia does not turn into a turn exclusively to China. This is part of the regional, Asia-Pacific policy, which is aimed at weakening Chinese influence, finding balance and parity. Therefore, economic incentives for Russia, which needs markets, technology and investment, are only a means to achieve its own goals: from resolving territorial disputes to balancing China and limiting Chinese expansion.
A dusty compromise would be acceptable to Moscow: according to the Soviet-Japanese declaration on ending the war in 1956, the USSR was ready to transfer the island of Shikotan and the Habomai ridge to Japan in exchange for a peace treaty. Under pressure from the United States, Tokyo refused to make peace, laying claim to Kunashir and Iturup. The failed deal already contained a formula that still suits the Russian leadership today.
Choosing between “give up all the islands” or “half”, the Kremlin is inclined towards a “half” solution. Perfect option assumes that “neither side will feel at a loss, neither side will feel defeated or a loser,” the Russian president explained his vision to Bloomberg.
However, even if the owner of the Kremlin and his Japanese colleague achieve a trusting relationship, how can we explain to the Russians the need to transfer the islands to another state?
No logic recent history doesn't tell. The last two years have shown that for the annexation of Crimea, Russians are ready to endure a dramatic deterioration in living standards and a rollback of all economic indicators ten years ago. So why should they give up the islands for a little economic assistance - medical Center in Vladivostok, the latest Japanese technology, LNG terminals and new production facilities? This does not fit into the Russian character, which can partly be explained by the saying: “to spite my grandmother I will freeze my ears.”
According to a 2016 VTsIOM survey, 53% of Russians are convinced that the Southern Kuril Islands will always belong to Russia. So the authorities will be able to justify themselves for a compromise only by referring to the “wise” decision of the USSR, where the country, according to many, forever left all the best.
But here, too, it is necessary to highlight a nuance: the peace treaty with Russia plus two islands does not suit the Japanese authorities, they want to “squeeze out” everything. However, what will Moscow receive as a result of a possible compromise, besides economic assistance?
Japan, by and large, just as it was from the G7 world, will remain integrated economically and politically into the Western world. Russia will not be able to make Tokyo its ally either globally or regionally. Moreover, the territorial dispute, which has been smoldering for decades, does not pose any significant problem for Moscow. We can safely assume that if the status quo continues for another seventy years, Russia will not lose anything.
All the rhetoric on this issue resembles diplomatic curtseys, which are needed for only one thing - balancing geopolitical interests in the Asia-Pacific region, where Japan is countering the emergence of Chinese hegemony, and Russia is escaping from the clutches of the tiger, which sees it as a raw materials appendage and a junior partner. Moscow is not averse to playing on Washington’s nerves, splitting the unity of the world’s leading economies.
But if Moscow has nowhere to rush, then does Abe have enough time to implement his plan? He has headed the Japanese government since 2012. Rarely has anyone held power in the land of the rising sun for as long as he has. Perhaps, in his fourth term, Putin will no longer meet with him at the Eastern Economic Forum, but by the end of 2016, the Russian president intends to visit Tokyo on an official visit and, presumably, not empty-handed.
The Kuril Islands are being quietly surrendered to Japan. These days, in the Far East of our country, events are taking place that should not have happened. Events that will have far-reaching consequences.
We are referring to the visit of the Japanese Minister for Okinawa and Northern Territories, Mr. Yamomoto, to two Kuril Islands: Kunashir and Iturup.
Previously, Japanese ministers only viewed the islands from helicopters or from the nearby island of Hokkaido through binoculars.
Now Minister Ichito Yamomoto is wandering around the islands, visiting a Japanese cemetery, and picking up trash on the coast together with Russian schoolchildren. On his next visit, he will remove Russians from the coast like garbage.
Moreover, Japan has agreed with our side on visa-free travel for the Japanese to the islands, directly using an internal Japanese passport.
The first groups of Japanese citizens are expected to arrive.
It can be assumed that behind our backs, a gradual surrender of the two islands of the southern Kuril Islands is being prepared. Assuming it is, it is safe to say that this will happen.
And then, we can expect that the Japanese will steal two more islands from Russia in exchange for some rubbish, used right-hand drive cars, pocket mirrors or kimonos. Kimonos and mirrors are exaggerations, but it’s bad if a Japanese minister roams freely on our territory.
The president and government are toying with the idea of concluding a peace treaty with Japan, which Russia needs like a dog’s fifth leg. For the sake of this agreement, VVPutin, our supreme leader and the sole decider of the country’s fate, apparently agreed to surrender the islands.
Only after the islands will the Japanese begin to whine that we give them Southern Sakhalin, the Koenigsberg Germans and their children and descendants will perk up and Angela Merkel will begin to demand the Kaliningrad region, which is oh, how vulnerable.
Rise up, national forces! Stop chasing resigned migrants from Central Asia around Moscow and St. Petersburg, get down to business, our territories, strategically important islands in an area rich in seafood, are being taken away on the sly.
JAPAN'S MINISTER OF STATE FOR NORTHERN TERRITORIES ARRIVED IN KUNASHIR.
Immediately after passing border control, he went to an official meeting with the authorities of the village of Yuzhno-Kurilsk. Yamamoto will leave for Iturup this evening. There the minister will also talk with the authorities and meet with the local population.
In the afternoon, Yamamoto will meet with the mayor of the Yuzhno-Kurilsky urban district Vasily Solomko and go sightseeing. The Japanese minister will stay in Kunashir until the evening, after which he will go to another island - Iturup. The official part of the visit starts there.
Yamamoto is expected to meet with the local population and visit a Japanese cemetery. Before the visit, the Japanese authorities noted that they perceived the trip as a reminder of the need to return the Southern Kuril Islands to Japanese control.
However, according to the visit program, the parties will limit themselves to discussing the visa-free regime, which has existed for residents of Japan since 1991.
According to senior lecturer at the Higher School of Economics Andrei Fisyun, the existence of such a border regime is strategically important for the Japanese. According to him, Tokyo is thus deciding the legitimacy of its claims to the territory.
Valery Kistanov, head of the Center for Japanese Studies at the Institute of the Far East, spoke on Life News about whether we should expect any changes on the territorial issue.
I don’t think this will be a breakthrough in our relations with Japan. Rather, it is simply another step within the framework of the agreements that were reached between President Vladimir Putin and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe during his visit to Moscow on April 29, says Valery Kistanov. — That visit could just be called significant, since it took place 10 years after the last visit of the previous prime minister. Now our relations with Japan are on an upward trajectory - Putin and Abe have agreed to resume negotiations on a peace treaty, and this already presupposes the solution of territorial problems. We are now awaiting Minister Lavrov’s visit to Japan in November. It will take place in a new 2+2 format: the defense ministers and foreign ministers of the two countries will simultaneously participate in the negotiations. Japan uses a similar format only with its closest allies - the USA and Australia. It is obvious that at these negotiations the first visible steps will be taken to develop the situation with the disputed islands.
Remember how Bulgakov’s caretaker Ivan Vasilyevich, who through a misunderstanding climbed onto the Moscow throne, gave away Russian territory “for nothing,” out of stupidity. “What, you son of a bitch, an impostor, are you squandering government lands?! So you won’t be able to stock up on any volosts!”
Journalists said that Putin was planning to sell our Kuril Islands for $2 trillion, one piece per island, and thereby compensate himself and Caudle for losses from Cypriot and other thieves’ flights, including the Swiss and American investigations into Timchenko’s GunVOR. (“Kuril problem: Putin promotes mysterious idea of “hikiwake””).
That’s why the Japanese flew in and argued with the traitor about the amount.
Remember how Bulgakov’s caretaker Ivan Vasilyevich, who through a misunderstanding climbed onto the Moscow throne, gave away Russian territory “for nothing,” out of stupidity. “What, you son of a bitch, an impostor, are you squandering government lands?! So you won’t be able to stock up on any volosts!”
This one is for money out of meanness.
House explosions in Moscow and Volgodonsk, preparations in Ryazan, Beslan, the Kursk submarine, offshore territory with oil and gas given to Norway. Now - the Kuril Islands.
And the country's stolen money - God knows how many lives were not cured or saved.
May be enough?
Just in case: by resolution of the Constitutional Court of the Russian Federation 8-P2013, his “election” was actually canceled because:
The Constitutional Court of the Russian Federation recognized that the elections consist of 2 parts. Inseparable and inalienable according to the Constitution. The second part - about challenging - was not legalized.
And since there was no law, there were no elections.
The conclusion is simple: Putin is illegal, he is a usurper.
When we drive out the invaders and our people come, remember, we have achieved legal grounds cancel all Putin's betrayals from 03/04/2012 at least. Shish to him, not Judas' grandmothers.
