The welfare of millions of Russians directly depends on the exchange rate of the national currency. It is in rubles that most citizens of the country keep their savings. Approximately a third of all deposits in Russian banks are ruble denominated.
However, today Russians’ confidence in domestic money has decreased somewhat, which is explained by the depreciation of the exchange rate, the geopolitical situation on the planet and the state of the Russian economy.
You will find answers to these and other questions in a new article in our magazine. Denis Kuderin is in touch, HeatherBober’s staff expert on financial topics.
Analytics, forecasts, expert opinions - only useful and relevant information!
1. What awaits the ruble in the future - positive and negative trends
In the recent history of the ruble, anything has happened, including “Black Tuesdays,” collapses and devaluations. The Russian currency chart moves following economic and political changes in the country and in the world.
Stability is only temporary. Therefore, keeping all your savings in RUB, especially outside a banking institution, is risky and impractical. Financially literate people don't do that. They distribute money among several currencies and put it into business. At a minimum, they put it in a bank deposit.
It’s even better if they invest them in more efficient banking instruments - securities, metal deposits, mutual funds, reliable investment projects. In this case, the fall of some money and the rise of others will not be catastrophic for your assets.
But this does not mean that forecasts should not interest you: every civilized citizen monitors quotes and acts in accordance with their changes.
However, not all forecasts should be taken on faith, much less as a guide to action. Most of these forecasts are empty hot air. Even competent financial analysts and economic commentators often make mistakes. The reason is simple: too many factors influence the situation.
Our task is to find the rational grain in such forecasts in order to create the most objective picture of the situation and draw appropriate conclusions.
Forecasts are needed to:
- know in what money it is more appropriate to keep most of your savings;
- make money on price fluctuations;
- preserve your assets in the event of a sharp fall in one of the currencies.
Exchange rate collapses always occur rapidly - that’s why they are collapses. And yet, it is quite possible to catch the tendency for a sharp change in quotes. Experienced people do this.
Changes in quotes can be predicted if you are aware of the latest news
Another question is who to believe? Surely you have a friend who likes to make forecasts and knows exactly what will happen to the ruble in a month, a week, or at the end of the year (underline as appropriate). And another friend predicts the opposite. One of them will end up being right. Should we believe such predictors?
As for official forecasts for 2019, there are, as usual, two trends – negative and positive.
Thus, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation assumes that the weakening of the national currency will continue, but this will have almost no effect on the country’s economy. GDP, ministers believe, will grow and inflation rates will fall.
The head of the department, Maxim Oreshkin, names indicative figures for the middle of the year: no more than 67-68 rubles. for a dollar.
But representatives of Bank of America think differently. Sanctions against Russian banks and financial assets abroad, in their opinion, will significantly limit the Russian economy. Companies will have less credit available, which will negatively impact growth and development. It is expected that the Russian currency will fall to 70 rubles. for a buck.
2. Why the ruble is falling - the main factors that negatively affect the exchange rate
There are actually several dozen factors influencing the fall of the ruble against the euro and dollar. A significant part of them is beyond government control. This means that there are no guarantees of stability. Russians, as always, should be prepared for any scenario.
Let's consider the main reasons for the depreciation of the ruble exchange rate.
Outflow of Russian capital
Geopolitical events and sanctions imposed by the West against the Russian economy continue to stimulate the movement of financial assets to foreign countries.
Large investors prefer not to keep money in rubles or securities representing the Russian economy. Ordinary citizens do the same. By not trusting Russian money, we thereby work for the stability of other countries.
The owners of the assets cannot be blamed for this, but the fact remains: capital is being withdrawn from the Russian economy. This leads to a drop in production, a decrease in GDP, an increase in unemployment and other “delights” of a time of crisis.
The game of the population with exchange rates
As soon as the position of the ruble weakens, the population begins to panic and buy dollars in huge quantities. This behavior is a manifestation of financial illiteracy, but again, ordinary citizens cannot be blamed for this: they remember very well the crises and collapses of recent decades.
However, panic in the market leads to an even greater increase in the value of foreign money. An avalanche effect occurs. Professional exchange players earn decent money from panicky fluctuations in the exchange rate. But most investors simply buy currency at an artificially high price, changing quotes in a direction unfavorable for the ruble.
Central Bank measures
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation switched to a floating exchange rate in 2015. In practice, this means that the main bank of the country no longer supports national money during a crisis. In other words, if previously the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the state budget were spent on artificially maintaining the exchange rate, today the national currency must support itself.
The Central Bank has other levers of influence on quotes, both positive and negative:
- additional issue of banknotes - more money is printed, which leads to inflation;
- currency interventions – purchase/sale of foreign money on an “industrial scale”;
- bond issue – massive purchase of securities strengthens the currency;
- reduction in the refinancing rate - the lower it is, the more stable the national currency exchange rate.
It would be naive to believe that only the Central Bank influences quotes. The USA also has a national bank - the Federal Reserve System. The decisions this organization makes directly affect the status of the dollar. All other money in the world depends on this currency.
Economic stagnation
The main export item to the Russian Federation is raw materials: oil, gas, and other energy resources. Due to high oil prices, the Russian economy is still afloat.
The remaining industries in our country are poorly developed or are in a state of stagnation. This means that there is no development, and our industry enterprises cannot seriously compete with foreign companies.
Economic sanctions have deprived Russia of a significant share of imports, but this situation cannot be called unambiguously negative. There is no import, which means we need to saturate the market from within. Against the backdrop of external pressure, some sectors of the economy have seen an upturn, in particular in the agricultural sector.
At the same time, a significant share of consumer goods (70-80%) is supplied to the Russian Federation from China. This is cheaper than producing your own products, but does not stimulate economic development.
And a little more negativity. Most of the large factories in the Russian Federation operate on outdated equipment. Industry is not expanding, new technologies are not being developed, and income from enterprises is barely enough to pay wages to workers. Machine tools have to be purchased from abroad, and this, again, means injections into foreign economies.
I can confirm this with my own example. Several years ago I worked for a large publishing house. He had a printing house, where out of 50 presses there was not a single Russian production - only German, Japanese and Chinese.
By the way, this printing house, the largest in Siberia, has now almost stopped. The staff was reduced by 80%, some workshops were closed forever.
Comparative table of influencing factors
3. What can affect the growth of the national currency
Most analysts do not believe that the ruble will rise in the next few years. However, such a scenario cannot be completely ruled out.
What needs to happen for the ruble to rise?
Investment of Western partners in Russian securities
This will happen if stocks, bonds and other securities of Russian origin begin to show a steady upward trend. Which, in turn, is possible in the event of economic recovery in the country.
Increase in oil prices
So far, there is so much oil in Russia that we export it abroad on an industrial scale. The state of the Russian, and before that the Soviet, economy has always depended on oil prices. More than half of all budget revenues come from oil money. The rest comes from other minerals.
As soon as oil falls by a couple of dollars per barrel, we will miss billions of rubles in the budget. If the price falls by 10 USD, the Russian economy will fall into the abyss. Fortunately, there is no downward trend yet. If prices for “black gold” continue to slowly creep up, this will strengthen the ruble in the second half of 2019.
Increasing the rate of national production
Everything is simple here - more exports, good and different, more revenues to the treasury.
So far, economic ties with foreign countries are mostly being broken rather than improved.
Population's attitude towards the national currency
If people begin to trust the Russian currency again, as they did 5-10 years ago, this will automatically increase its status.
More deposits of the population into national money means more stable its stock exchange quotes.
4. Is it worth exchanging rubles for dollars and euros - expert opinion
Experts believe that buying foreign money en masse is short-sighted and impractical. At all times, it is better to keep savings in several currencies at once. Banks have special multi-currency deposits for these purposes - far-sighted investors use them.
Don’t forget that ruble deposits accrue more interest than foreign currency deposits. During a period of economic stabilization, it is even more profitable to keep savings in Russian money.
But taking long-term loans in USD is definitely not worth it. You will also have to pay in dollars. Even a small increase in the dollar will turn into a serious debt burden.
6. Conclusion
Let's draw conclusions. Analysts predict the exchange rate based on an ideal situation. And there are almost no ideal situations in nature. Something always goes wrong, which is why even brilliant economic experts make mistakes in their forecasts.
If you want to protect your savings, distribute them between three currencies. Then economic shocks will affect you to a minimal extent.
Question to readers:
What forecasts do you personally make regarding the ruble?
We wish you financial well-being regardless of your choice of currency! We welcome comments, reviews, and life stories. See you again!
Hello! In this article we will talk about what will happen to the dollar and ruble in the near future, what forecasts exist regarding the future of the economy of our state, how the currencies (ruble and dollar) are expected to behave and how to correct the situation. You will also learn the opinions of various experts regarding exchange rates.
Reasons for the difficult situation in the Russian economy
It is foolish to deny that the current economic situation in the state causes citizens not just tension, but real fear. The national currency is unstable, and this entails consequences for every single family in Russia. Many people keep their savings in rubles and the future of their savings worries them very much.
If we talk about the reasons why negative phenomena occur in the economy of our state, they are far from new. Other states have faced them, and ours too. World history knows more than one such case. Why all these factors came together in one ball will be analyzed in the future by historians, and we will now try to express our point of view on the current situation.
So, the following points take place:
- A sharp decline in oil prices. No matter how sad it may be, over the past few years Russia has become tightly hooked on the so-called “oil needle.” This is a well-known fact and is not a secret;
- The economy is skewed towards raw materials. Corollary of the first point. Funds from oil sales were not invested in the development of new technologies, scientific potential, and so on.
- Corruption component. The level of corruption in the state has reached enormous proportions. Yes, the fight against it is gaining momentum, but its successful completion is still very far away.
- Sanctions imposed by other states. This is, of course, a double-edged sword, but it is foolish to deny that they have a negative impact.
- Deterioration of the investment climate. Directly related to all of the above factors, as well as to the instability of the national currency.
Possible scenarios
In fact, there are several of them. Let's take a closer look at each.
- Particularly optimistic. Some part of the expert community adheres to this scenario. It is possible only in the following cases: the price of oil will increase to 60 rubles per barrel and sanctions on Russia will be lifted in full. So there is no hope for the rapid development of this option.
- Medium optimistic. Experts from Germany offer the following vision of the situation: They believe that the Russian authorities will make every effort to stabilize the situation and the national currency will strengthen its position.
- Practical hopeless. One of the leading American economic analysis bureaus believes that the price of oil will continue to fall and will lead to a complete collapse of the ruble.
- Deplorable. Some experts agreed that the value of the dollar will cross the 100 ruble mark.
Without going to extremes, it can be noted that most analysts are of the same opinion: the ruble-dollar ratio will fluctuate between 70-75.
We all know that the exchange rate of the Russian ruble is directly dependent on the price of so-called “black gold”. And the imposed sanctions are also collapsing our currency and even the Central Bank cannot cope with the situation completely.
There are also experts who believe that stabilizing the ruble is not included in the plans of the Central Bank and the Government at all. In their opinion, the state prefers to focus on developing the export of various goods. To what extent this opinion can be called correct, we will not go into reasoning, but it does exist.
Naturally, the development of exports will bring the state a certain level of income, but in a global sense this will not solve the problem.
What will happen to the ruble in the near future in 2018
The behavior of our national currency is seriously influenced by the following factors:
- What policy does the state itself pursue?. Let's make a reservation that most of the decisions are aimed at the benefit of our country and its strengthening;
- in securities. At the moment they are at an insufficient level, although foreign investors have begun to be active in this regard, despite the sanctions;
- Oil price. If it increases, then so will the income of our state;
- Attitude of the population itself to the ruble. It would seem, what role does it play? Quite serious. When the population loses confidence in the national currency, the number of ruble deposits decreases, and this directly affects the ruble exchange rate.
- Increase in production capacity. If this indicator gradually increases, then not only the volumes that were planned will be fulfilled, but also a number of volumes in excess of the plan.
Why is the ruble depreciating?
- Due to the departure of Russian capital to foreign countries. The ruble is unstable, which means that investors transfer funds to another currency, thereby maintaining the stability and sustainability of this currency.
- Because of the games of the population themselves on exchange rates. Many Russians want to make money on exchange rates. This desire is quite understandable, because the dollar and euro exchange rates are consistently high. At the same time, by exchanging the ruble for foreign currency, citizens themselves ensure that its exchange rate falls. In addition, this clearly indicates a lack of confidence in the ruble, as mentioned earlier.
- Measures taken by the Central Bank. When the national currency began to undergo a serious decline, it was worth imposing a ban on converting the ruble into the dollar. According to analysts, this could well prevent the fall.
- Poor development of production. Many large factories are idle, or operate on equipment left over from Soviet times. This means that the enterprise cannot operate at full capacity, the quality of the products suffers so much that the public’s trust in such products drops to zero.
- Economic stagnation. This is the result of the widespread use of foreign goods and products. Of course, imported goods are of high quality, domestic, and are not much more expensive. By purchasing them, any person invests money in the development of the economy of another country, aggravating the situation in his own. This situation can only be corrected by developing advanced technologies and industrial production.
To understand the situation as a whole, let's consider various opinions of authoritative experts. For example, Nikolai Salabuto connects the rise in the dollar exchange rate and the fall in the ruble with a clear decline in oil prices. He gives forecasts for a cost of about 200 rubles per dollar.
He also expresses the opinion that the following have a huge impact on the value of the ruble:
- Sanctions policy towards our state;
- The already mentioned level of oil prices;
- The dependence of many industries on the economic situation in the country, as well as their dependence on geopolitics in general;
- Policy enforced by the US Federal Reserve.
According to analyst Igor Nikolaev, The Central Bank of the Russian Federation is taking all steps to improve the situation and there is no point in questioning their correctness. But at the same time, these steps will not be able to completely make the situation stable, since initially it is necessary to stop the impact on the ruble of those negative aspects that we discussed above.
The head of Alor Group of Companies, Sergei Khestanov, says that all the factors due to which the ruble exchange rate decreases can be divided into 2 groups: objective and subjective.
Among the objective ones, he, like other experts, singles out sanctions and the size of our country’s external debt. The subjective ones include: first of all, the opinions of other analysts (since this is simply their point of view, which is expressed), as well as the outflow of capital from the country.
It is impossible to predict how all these factors will behave together. But the expert is confident that the value of the ruble will decrease by another 10% from the current exchange rate.
In turn, the financial analyst Vitaly Kulagin offers the following point of view: the position of the ruble is currently only a starting point. In 2018, the ruble will fully adapt to the situation and begin to grow.
What is devaluation and is it possible in the current economic situation in the country?
Many, upon hearing the word “devaluation,” are horrified and expect the collapse of the entire financial system. In fact, devaluation is significantly different from concepts such as denomination and default.
Devaluation – a decrease in the value of the national currency in relation to other currencies.
Default – this is when the state, due to lack of money, simply cannot fulfill its financial obligations to its citizens.
It is clear from expert forecasts that if the price of oil drops sharply again, the Russian currency will significantly fall in value. Representatives of large banks (such as Raiffeisenbank, Alfa Bank) believe that in 2018 the ruble will weaken to 95 rubles per dollar.
The next point due to which another round of devaluation may occur is the budget deficit. According to the results of 2016, its expenditure side exceeds the revenue side by 3.5%, which, in turn, puts a serious burden on the Reserve Fund. And during 2018 the situation is unlikely to improve significantly.
Due to the budget deficit, the reserves of the Reserve Fund may be exhausted in full.
Also, problems for the ruble arise due to various tensions in geopolitics. In particular, the conflict in Syria may cause the introduction of new sanctions against the Russian Federation, and therefore hit the economy and the position of the ruble.
According to pessimistic forecasts, a new stage of devaluation is inevitable. The optimistic one assumes that the ruble will not resume falling, but will begin to strengthen.
Should we expect a denomination in 2018?
The possibility of denomination of the ruble is categorically denied not only by the government, but also by most of the expert community. Experts consider such a step ineffective and negative.
Denomination - This is one of the forms of enlargement of monetary units. It facilitates cash payments and is used when the ruble loses purchasing power.
The possibility of using this tool has been discussed for several years. In particular, since the end of 2014, when the ruble began to lose its position. There were proposals in the State Duma to use this measure to mitigate the crisis in the economy. But later this initiative did not find support and was considered pointless. According to the head of the Central Bank, it makes sense to discuss such a possibility only if the ruble depreciates more than 10 times.
While denomination makes calculations easier, the procedure itself requires enormous labor costs and is fraught with great risks. It is necessary to replace banknotes, introduce new banknotes into circulation, and this threatens not only with an increase in the level of inflation, but also with the fact that prices will be rounded up.
Under the current conditions, there are no plans to raise the issue of denomination in 2018.
Experience of our neighbors
In Belarus, denomination has been carried out since July 2016. As a result of this, the national currency of Belarus will lose 4 zeros. This issue had been brewing for a long time and in the end it was decided to carry out a denomination. The problem began back in the 90s, when the republic gained independence. The situation reached the point of absurdity: in order to buy a TV or refrigerator, the buyer had to take a whole bag of money with him, literally.
Our country also has such experience. The denomination was carried out in 1998, 3 zeros were taken from the Russian currency. At that time, this step was justified, economists say.
As we said above, expert opinions regarding the ruble are different, and sometimes they completely contradict each other. But the fact that 2017 was not an easy year for the ruble can be said almost unequivocally.
What will happen to the dollar in the near future - expert opinions
To understand the situation more fully, let’s get acquainted with the opinions of various experts.
Alexey Kudrin, former finance minister, argues that the Russian economy will experience an even deeper recession in the coming months. He calls the reason for this the foreign policy of our state, in particular, the introduction of counter-sanctions.
He is supported by an economist Vladimir Tikhomir. He believes that the lifting of counter-sanctions will stabilize the situation.
It is also worth citing the forecast of one of the large American banks, which has a positive reputation in the economic community. So, Morgan Stanley analysts It is assumed that in 2018 the value of the dollar will be 85-87 rubles. But its reduction in price will begin only in 2018, and not by much.
A well-known analyst also expresses his opinion Mikhail Khazin. He believes that the entire economic model that has developed in Russia needs to be updated. This is what will help stabilize the ruble and correct the difficult situation in the economy. However, a number of investors completely disagree with him, who believe that the ruble is reducing its dependence on oil and will only strengthen in the future.
Experts from the Yegor Gaidar Institute express a diametrically different opinion on this matter. They say that the dollar will lose its position and fall closer to the second half of the year.
Dollar Outlook to 2020
To analyze what the dollar exchange rate will be in the future, experts rely on those events that will definitely happen. The accuracy level of such an analysis is about 70%. Events that occur unexpectedly (disasters of various types, natural disasters, and so on) are impossible to predict and provide for.
If we talk about the long term, the forecast for the dollar exchange rate until 2020 has already been made by Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. It is as follows: if the cost of oil is equal to 40 dollars per barrel, then this is not a bright future for our national currency. The dollar will rise in price to 75-80 rubles and then the crisis will continue for several more years, or rather, until 2019 inclusive.
Online agency Prognoxex and its analysts believe that the first half of 2018 will be characterized by a gradual depreciation of the ruble, which means an increase in the dollar. For the second half of the year, the predicted dollar exchange rate is 62 rubles.
As we see, even the most authoritative analysts do not agree on the dollar exchange rate even in 2018, not to mention the situation that will develop in 2020. Exchange rates fluctuate sharply and with a great deal of unpredictability, which nullifies all forecasts. Also, such races open the door to speculation and attempts to make money from it. Although all experts say that without a certain amount of knowledge, you should not engage in currency manipulation - and she is right.
Factors influencing the dollar
There are several key factors that influence this currency. At the same time, the leadership of our state cannot influence them.
- Number of foreign economic transactions. Currently, the circulation of funds with other countries is clearly insufficient.
- Inflation rate. According to the most optimistic forecasts, it is 5%, but if the situation worsens, the dollar will rise in price by exactly that much.
- Lifting economic sanctions on Iran. This country has again entered the oil production market. This means that the average price of oil will already drop significantly and affect the value of the dollar.
Current issues of the future of the economy
Many issues related to dollar and ruble exchange rates are of great concern to the population.
Let's look at the most common ones and try to answer them:
- Could the dollar be abolished as a currency in 2018? Today, the government is taking measures aimed at reducing the dollar turnover in the state. It is clear that it is completely unrealistic to exclude it, since the dollar is the basis of the entire global financial system. But it is possible to introduce restrictions. Let's explain with an example: natural gas is our national resource. We can sell it to other states not for dollars, but for rubles. This will allow the ruble to strengthen significantly.
- What will the dollar exchange rate be in 2018? As we can see from all the forecasts given above, the dollar exchange rate can either rise or fall. In addition to all other factors, this will depend on the decisions made by the Fed.
- Why do people trust the dollar? It is this currency that has shown itself to be the most stable over a long period of time, the euro is a young currency, and the dollar is a time-tested financial instrument.
What will happen to oil
The following principle applies here: if the price of oil rises, the dollar falls, and the ruble strengthens its position; if oil falls, the dollar increases in price, and the ruble is already falling. Almost all experts are unanimous: it is simply unrealistic to make a forecast regarding the price of “black gold” in 2018 with high accuracy.
For example, an expert from France Pierre Terzian, who is the director of such a serious and well-known publication as Petrostrategies, says that the price of oil will increase in 2018 by an order of magnitude compared to 2016, but will stabilize only in 2018.
Specialists from Pira They also believe that quotes will rise to $75, and this will have a positive impact on the ruble exchange rate.
The expert community also believes that we can count on a gradual easing of sanctions, which means the ruble will be able to regain the positions it has lost.
In general, intrigue awaits us with oil. It is known that OPEC members (and Russia too) signed an agreement according to which oil production will be frozen. Thanks to this, the price will move up. But what happens next is even more interesting: US oil producers will start intensively extracting shale oil and will literally flood the market with it, which is unprofitable for us.
This is what he says Tamara Kasyanova, managing partner of 2K. She believes that the decision made by OPEC member countries has so far been accepted positively by the market. But it is difficult to say how clearly and honestly the points specified in this agreement will be implemented. It is difficult to say how shale oil production will affect our economy.
Russian economy in 2018
The government of the Russian Federation confidently declares that the country's economy will resume its growth in the new year. But this largely depends on trends in the oil market. Although, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, our country has already experienced most of the consequences of the crisis. Despite fluctuations in oil prices, the situation can be called stable and growth is planned at 0.6-1% in 2018.
At the same time, experts from the Higher School of Economics believe that energy prices will continue to fall, and the dynamics of industry of all types and retail trade will also remain negative. In order to reduce the dependence of the Russian economy on external factors, it is necessary to carry out a global reform of the entire system, that is, to stimulate entrepreneurship and reduce the role of the state in the economy. But again, this is just an opinion; how it will be perceived is another matter.
Be that as it may, 2018 is already being called the “year of recovery.” It is planned that wages will be indexed and that other payments will increase slightly.
There are also completely opposite points of view that 2018 will mark the beginning of catastrophic events in our country.
How not to lose your funds due to fluctuations in exchange rates
To save your savings, you should listen to serious experts who recommend investing them in real estate and precious metals. There are also opinions that a fairly promising area for investment is (properly organized and carefully thought out). This is relevant due to the fact that in many industries there is a significant reduction.
One of the investment options is to open a multi-currency bank account. It allows its owners to transfer funds from one selected currency to another, taking into account how favorable the rate is.
Well, in order to move a little away from the serious economic topic, we bring to your attention forecasts regarding the future of our country and its national currency, which were made by famous predictors and astrologers. And how to treat them, everyone will decide for themselves.
St. Matrona Moscow
The fortuneteller believed that this year would be difficult and decisive not only for Russia, but for all of humanity. But it is not possible to reliably interpret her words. The prophecy itself sounds ominous, but it is just a prophecy.
Helena Blavatsky
She believed that global changes in world politics and economics, which began in 2012, would come to their logical conclusion by 2018. The future of Russia depends on how 2018 goes. By the way, a prominent scientist shared the same opinion Konstantin Tsiolkovsky. It is his works that reflect the thoughts that 2018 for Russia will be a breakthrough in the space industry. But he also warns against excessive development of new technologies, as this can lead to serious man-made disasters.
Nostradamus
As everyone knows, Michel Nostradamus expressed his prophecies in quatrains (poems). They are difficult to decipher, but in relation to Russia it sounds like this: there will be a shortage of water, as well as several local military conflicts.
Pavel Globa
Many Russians really trust him as an astrologer. Some of his predictions came true and he voices quite favorable forecasts for 2018: Russia will return to the world stage, the economy will begin to return to a state of stability. The country will gradually become one of the most influential states in the world.
Vanga
She has repeatedly predicted that 2018 will be a difficult year for our country. There will be a struggle between people of different religions, and the economy will experience another decline.
Conclusion
Having reviewed and analyzed all the forecasts, we can conclude that the national currency of Russia has certain tendencies to both strengthen and weaken. It is also worth paying attention to the fact that the economic situation now is not the most favorable, which can be influenced not only by external factors, but also by internal ones. You need to understand that we are not just talking about exchange rates and oil prices, but about the formation of a different picture of the world. Therefore, it is unlikely that life in the country will become easy in the near future.
In general, the situation is quite precarious, state revenues are still falling, but there are definitely favorable prospects.
The future of the country and all humanity worries every citizen, so many want to know what awaits Russia in the near future, who will come to power, whether the end of the world will happen. Using only the Internet, it is difficult to find reliable information from primary sources. Often, the authors of predictive articles rely on the opinions of psychics and astrologers. Find out what awaits modern Russia in 2018, what to prepare for before the Year of the Dog.
What awaits Russia in the near future?
The most dramatic change that awaits us in the near future is the election of the head of state. Questions about the composition of the Duma and the new government concern not only those radically opposed to the current system, but also other citizens. Sociologists conducted calculations of public opinion. It turned out that more than a third of the population consider the current policy to be wrong. Many expect changes for the better from the current president's successor, although polls show that the country is ready to re-elect the current president in the 2018 elections.
Experts expect from the presidential elections the arrival of a young team that will rapidly lead the country to development and improve its position on the world stage. The arrival of a new government will renew relations with America, China, and strengthen its position in Europe. Regarding Ukraine, experts made a positive forecast. Minor military conflicts will continue throughout this year, but there will be no major hostilities.
Astrological forecast for 2018 for Russia
Star experts talk about supporting the development of industry in Siberia and trade relations with China. Astrologers' forecasts predict a long, thorny path for the power to a stable position on the world stage and stability within the country. What awaits Russia in 2018 based on the location of the stars:
- the beginning of the spiritual revival of the nation;
- peaceful life of citizens;
- measured economic development;
- calm political situation.
Predictions for 2018 for Russia
No matter how skeptical one is about psychics, in times of instability and rapid development, people read forecasts again and again. Awareness of what awaits Russia in 2018 will help prepare family, finances and other areas of life for possible events that will affect everyone's life. Clairvoyants predict that there will be a revival of the country's economy, and the time will come for a judicious, fair government.
Vanga's predictions
According to Vanga’s prophecies, over the next year we will experience a confident transition from a protracted period of economic decline to growth in all aspects of life. A reliable, experienced leader will lead the country to development and secure its status as a powerful, great country, as it has been at all times. Many presidents have strived for this. Only the name of the next head of state remains in doubt.
Nostradamus
The seer's essays describe the birth of a certain deformed baby as a warning of trouble for the whole world. The fact that Nostradamus lived 5 centuries ago makes it difficult to take all the predictions on faith. Moreover, it is unlikely that he could look so far ahead and characterize the future of one specific country. However, he said that the 20s of the 21st century will mark the beginning of the country's journey as a superpower. No precise predictions were mentioned.
Maria Duval
The French clairvoyant's predictions for Russia are positive. The power, in her opinion, will eliminate the consequences of the 2014 crisis and improve the economy. It is known that the population will reach a new level of spiritual development and the introduction of the latest technologies. Russia will strengthen its military and financial positions so much that it will be able to invest resources in projects in European countries.
Modern psychics
One of the most influential astrologers of our time, Pavel Globa, predicts that by 2018, America will shift from its position as a world economic leader. It touches on problems in the European Union (Portugal), where changes similar to the bankruptcy of Greece will occur. Globa focuses on stability in the economic sphere, the strengthening of the Russian ruble without sudden upward surges.
Predictions for 2018 from other famous seers are as follows:
- Wolf Messing predicted the emergence of a new political leader. A man with a liberal mindset and a stoic character will change the course of world history.
- Alexander Sheps predicts the emergence of Russia as a powerful EU power.
- James Hansen foresaw many fires in the northern counties of the country. Floods caused by melting glaciers will affect everyone on the planet.
- Matrona of Moscow warns: Russia should be wary of natural disasters, war or the global economic crisis.
Predictions about Putin
Clairvoyants do not publicly disclose their visions about the leader of the state, but world-famous political scientists, analyzing the current situation and historical events, believe that there will be no fundamental changes in 2018. Authoritative astrologer Vasily Nemchin claims that by 2023 the country will experience a rise with the help of a new leader, the “Great Potter,” who will take the helm at the age of 55. We should expect the current president to come to power for a second term. According to analyzes of the political and economic situation, the versions of who Putin’s successor is in 2018 do not differ.
Imagine - every day in Russia another holiday, event, date is celebrated, and as a rule, more than one. Personal experience tells us that it is incredibly difficult to remember all the holidays of the year, but common sense whispers that it is not necessary. And indeed, why remember church holidays, state holidays, professional holidays, and to them it is also worth adding personal dates, such as the birthdays of relatives and a couple of dozen friends, wedding anniversaries, and others. Therefore, the daily calendar created by the SuperTosty website will solve for you the problem of remembering dates and events, will remind you of Orthodox holidays, Russian weekends, celebrated professional dates and other equally significant holidays. With events of a personal nature, what can you do, you will have to deal with them yourself; fortunately, it is also enough to write them down in a notebook, or better yet, a mobile phone where you can turn on a reminder - the twenty-first century is after all!
Our calendar reflects all the holidays of winter, spring, summer and autumn. For each holiday, we have selected congratulations, toasts, greeting cards and SMS. Now not a single holiday of the year will pass you by, you will be aware of events in Russia, its dates, and will be able to congratulate colleagues and friends on their working and professional holidays in time. After all, all year round, every day, hundreds of events are celebrated, dates dedicated to teachers, doctors, and other professions, church holidays, city days, military glory and other equally interesting holidays.
Holidays, dates and events of the year
Holiday calendar for January
January- (lat. Januarius), according to legend, received his name from the Roman king Numa Pompilius in honor of the Roman god Janus, personifying the beginning of a two-faced god, who looks with one face into the past, with the other into the future. The first day of January was also dedicated to Janus. January was introduced as one of the months in Ancient Rome around 700 BC. e., in 46 BC. e. Julius Caesar established the beginning of the year as January 1.The Slavic name prosinets - apparently from the increase in daylight, the addition of heavenly blue.
January is the beginning of the year, winter is the middle, and spring is the grandfather.
| January holidays: |
Holiday calendar for February
February- (lat. Februarius), named after the ancient Greek god of the underworld Februus or Febru.
There is another version - in ancient times, February was the last of the year. In ancient Rome, for example, in February they tried to cleanse themselves of all the bad things that had accumulated over the year. Hence, its name - after the name of the rite of cult cleansing from sins, repentance in Dr. Rome - februarius (Latin - cleansing), in those days February was the last month of the year.
In addition to the official one, there are a number of popular names: “snezhen”, “kruten”, “zimobor”, “bokogrey”, “krivodorog”, “kazibrod”, “kazidoroga”.
Slavic names - sechen (cf. Ukrainian sichen - January) (according to the text of the Vologda Gospel), snezhen (according to the text of the Polotsk Gospel). Other Slavic names for the month: fierce, velcha, svechnik, druinik (that is, the second, svechkovy). Bokogray - the cattle comes out to bask in the sun. It was also called “low water” (the time between winter and spring). In the chronicles it was called a wedding, from winter weddings held from the day of Epiphany to Maslenitsa.
Holiday calendar for March
March- (lat. Martius). In the ancient Roman calendar, the year began with the month on which the vernal equinox fell. It was called primidilis - according to its serial number.
After the reform of this calendar, the first month of the year and spring became Martus (Latin Mars), in honor of the ancient Roman god Mars, the father of Romulus. Mars was the god of war, but, at the same time, and in its more ancient meaning, he was the god of farmers, rural workers.
The modern name for March came to us from Byzantium. And before that, in Ancient Rus' they called it “brezen” - evil for birches, flowing like this month they burned a birch on coals.
In the Russian folk calendar, March is called protalnik. Melt water - "snowflake", according to popular belief, is healing. They washed the floors in the house with it, watered flowers, and washed clothes taken from sick people in it. And the walls of the house were renewed, house plants gained strength, and the sick person was left thin and ill. Other names for this month are also known, associated with natural phenomena: winter forest, kaplyuzhnik, dry (from the winds drying up moisture), berezol or berezozol, prolezhny - from this month spring began, the harbinger of summer. Although March itself is not spring, but the pre-spring.
| March holidays: |
Holiday calendar for April
April- (lat. Aprilis), named after the goddess Venus, or more precisely, her Greek counterpart Aphrodite. Other options: from Lat. apricus - “warmed by the sun, located in the sun” or aperio - “to open”, i.e. month, when shoots appear, buds open.
The Slavic name berezol, another - pollen, coincides with the Ukrainian. kviten.
The common Russian name - play the ravines, speaks of streams of melting snow.
Other names: snowgon, berezozol, pollen, light the snow.
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April holidays: Floating dates |
Holiday calendar for May
May- (lat. Majus), named after the Roman goddess Maya, the mother of Mercury, who personified blossoming nature and fertility. There is also a version that the name is based on the name not of the Roman, but of the Greek Maya - the goddess of the mountains, which at this time are covered with greenery. The Anglo-Saxons called May "trimilk" - from May, cows began to be milked three times a day. The Danes call it "blumaandom".
Slavic and Ukrainian name - grass. The Slavs also called it proletny. Other names: herbalist, herbal, light bloomer, pink flower, rose flower, pollen, daylight, bird whistling, nightingale moon, kveten, rose flower, roznyak, great traven, sheva or shwiban, May. There was another name - Yarets (in honor of the Slavic sun god Yarila).
May is popularly considered unlucky. This is a bad month for weddings. “To get married in May is to suffer forever.” “I would be glad to get married, but May doesn’t tell me.”
Most often, cold weather occurs during the flowering period of bird cherry (from May 4). They say: “When the bird cherry blossoms, there is always cold.” The cold in May is called “cheremkhovaya”.
| May Holidays: |
Holiday calendar for June
June- (lat. Junius), named after the goddess Juno, wife of Jupiter, goddess of fertility, mistress of rain and guardian of marriage. According to another version, the name of the month goes back to the word “junior”, which means “young”, “younger”.
June is the month of radiant sun, the longest days and white nights, the brightest month of the year is Milk. And June is also a songful and fertile month, grain-growing and hoarding, grain-bearing, it accumulates harvest for the whole year, enriches our home. June and the blush of the year, and the first grass, and the anthill. The time of tall grasses and hayfields, bright flowers was also called multi-colored, retail, strawberry.
If the nights are warm in June, there will be an abundance of fruits.
Like June, so is the hay.
Heavy dew is a sign of fertility, and frequent fogs promise a mushroom harvest.
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Holiday calendar for July
July- (lat. Julius, named after Julius Caesar. Before that - Quintilis). Slavic names - lipets (Ukrainian name - lipen), from the time of flowering of the linden tree; the hay barn (“hay” and “to ripen”) and the hay barn reflected the ripening of hay and its placement in stacks; The Russian name "cherven" comes from the old Russian word "chervleny", i.e. red, beautiful. July is called the beauty of summer, its hope, the middle of color. They call it the green feast of the year, the month of fragrant berries, honey herbs, generous sweet tooth, lush, lush and colorful.
July is popularly called senostav, zharnik, senozarnik, sickle, pribirikha and sufferer. Due to frequent rain showers and thunderstorms, July was called a month of thunderstorms and thunderstorms. It’s not without reason that people say that July throws lightning and cripples oak trees. July is also mowing and mowing, hay-growing and hay-growing, green suffering and the darling of sudden and fleeting rains. July is the central month of summer, the zenith of heat, radiant beauty. People talked about July: since July came into the yard, it’s time to cram sickles; The harvest is an expensive time, there is no peace for anyone here. With the most intense heat, the harvest began and the first, nightly sheaf was knitted.
If July is hot, December will be frosty. In July, clouds stretch across the sky in stripes - it will rain. The greenish color of a puddle is a sign of the onset of severe drought. In the morning the fog spreads across the grass - the weather will be good. If the grass is dry in the morning, expect rain by night.
Holiday calendar for August
August- (lat. Augustus). Named after the Roman Emperor Augustus. Eighth month of the year. The name is not Russian; it came to our fathers from Byzantium. The indigenous, Slavic names of this month were different.
Other names: serpen (from the word “sickle”, harvest time), dawn (from the radiance of lightning), gustar (they eat everything abundantly, thickly), zhench, zhneyska, prashnik, velikserpen, osemnik (eighth), mistress, velikomesnyak, kimovets, kolovets, morning watcher.
Depending on the customs, many different rituals are held on Zarev (including all three Spas - apple, honey, nut).
Proverbs and sayings about August: August does not tell you to walk. In August, the sickles are warm and the water is cold. Look at oats and flax in August, earlier they are unreliable. A peasant has three worries in August: mowing, plowing, and sowing. August destroys, but then amuses. August is hard labor, but after that there will be a riot. August cabbage, and March sturgeon. In August, women have a holiday, harvest, and from September it’s Indian summer. August of the gathering or supply.
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Holiday calendar for September
September(lat. September) - the first month of autumn. Leaf grower. Pensive. Howler. Fieldfare. Veresen. Zorevnik. Khmuren. Centemary. Ruen. Ruin. End of summer.
The name of the month reflects the autumn season: Revun - it is raining, bad weather; Gloomy - fading sunlight, gloomy sky; Ruen - yellow color of autumn; Ryuin - roar of deer.
It is customary to finish field work in September, and it is no coincidence that it was once the first month of the year: the old year ended and the year of the new harvest began. In September, in the 2nd half, the color of the leaves of maple, linden, oak, and birch changes. From the end of the first ten days, linden, elm, and warty birch leaves fall; The crowns of hawthorn, maple, bird cherry, aspen, ash, red elderberry, and oak are thinning. Linden and poplar begin to fall leaves from below; elm, hazel and ash - on top.
Signs of September: Thunder in September foreshadows a warm autumn. Until the leaves fall from the cherries, no matter how much snow falls, the thaw will drive it away. If the cranes fly high, slowly and “talk,” it will be a good autumn. The web spreads over the plants - to warmth.
| September Holidays: |
Holiday calendar for October
October- (lat. October). The ancient Russian name for the month October, October. Muddy. Leaf fall. Podzimnik. Pozimnik. Wedding party. Pazdernik. Zazimye. Freeze. Measured. Praise the month. The names of the month October are mainly borrowed from Central Greek. October is the late period of autumn. The norm of sunshine is 80 hours. The weather is very changeable. The day decreases by 2 hours 10 minutes.
The eighth month of the old Roman year, which began in March before Caesar's reform. Got its name from Lat. octo - eight. Due to the transition to winter time, it is the longest month of the year (745 hours).
October will cover the earth, sometimes with leaves, sometimes with snow. In October, neither on wheels nor on sleds. It's October for everyone, but the guy has no choice. In October there are seven weather conditions: sowing, blowing, twisting, stirring, roaring, pouring from above, sweeping from below. Late leaf fall means a difficult year.
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Holiday calendar for November
November- English November - from lat. novem "nine", which is what the Romans considered it to be;
The Old Russian name is gruden, from “gruda” - frozen earth in piles, not covered with snow, in Old Russian, for example. Nestor the chronicler generally has a winter road. Ukrainian name for leaf fall. Other names for November: Leaves. Leafy. Leafy. Breast. Ice cream. Freezing over. Half-winter road. Zapka winter. Gate of winter. Wedding party. The last month of autumn.
The most foggy month of the year. November is the gate of winter. November - September's grandson, October's son, winter's dear father. November is the twilight of the year. In November, winter fights with autumn. In November, the man says goodbye to the cart and climbs into the sleigh. November nights are dark before the snow. In November there will be snow - bread will arrive. Everything in November is en masse - on the table, on the land, and on the water. November also gives generously, like autumn. But the road is full of potholes, and there is confusion between the villages. Don't pass, don't pass.
| November holidays: |
Holiday calendar for December
December(Latin: December) - the twelfth month of the Gregorian calendar. The tenth month of the Old Roman year, which began in March before Caesar's reform. Got its name from Lat. decem - ten. After shifting the beginning of the year to January, it became the twelfth and last month of the year.
The ancient Russian name is winter road, studen, stuzhaylo, studenny. Ukrainian name for breast. December is popularly called the gates of winter. It’s time to protect the peasant’s goods from severe frosts, from scarcity, to see that the nourishing spirit in the grain bottoms does not run out, the grain does not dry out, or freeze. In December they said: “warmth flows from the eyes,” i.e. the frost breaks through to tears.
Folk signs: If December is dry, spring and summer will be dry. If this month is cold, snowy, with frost and winds, there will be a harvest.
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And civilization or even the entire Universe. The threat can be either imaginary or real. For some, the expression “end of the world” evokes fear, panic and horror, while others consider it absurd. However, there is even a whole list of upcoming apocalypses. Before we talk about them, we should know the possible causes of the end of the world.
Possible causes of the apocalypse
There are many reasons for the end of the world. Some of them seem truly impossible, while others could well lead to the death of all living things.
- First of all, this is war. Biological or even nuclear.
- Secondly, possible genetic diseases that will eventually destroy the whole world, taking over it so much that attempts to cure humanity will be useless.
- Thirdly, famine, which, for example, can occur in case of overpopulation.
- Fourthly, an environmental disaster, when the cause of the death of a people is the people themselves. That is why environmentalists all over the world are calling to protect their planet. Take, for example, the destruction of the ozone layer - all this is quite dangerous.
- Another problem, which is to blame for man himself, is nanotechnology getting out of control.
- Sixthly, a sharp change in climate. Global cooling or warming will lead to the death of almost all life on the planet.
- The causes of the apocalypse can also be the eruption of a supervolcano, the fall of a huge asteroid, or a strong solar flare.
All these and many other reasons can radically change life on Earth, and possibly even lead to its death. How dangerous are these events and should we expect an apocalypse in the near future? We'll talk about this and much more further.
The end of the world according to the Mayan calendar
First, let's remember 2012, when the whole world literally lived in fear of the end of the world according to the Mayan calendar. According to numerous sources, the apocalypse was supposed to happen in 2012. Why was everyone waiting for him on this particular day and where did such a mythical figure come from?
The thing is that the people who once lived in Central America, the so-called Mayan people, kept a calendar that ended on this date. Lovers of mysticism and various kinds of clairvoyants said that the world would supposedly end on this day. Such statements, which simply blew up the Internet, scared millions of people. What did the earthlings, filled with fear, not expect: volcanic eruptions, strong earthquakes and tsunamis, and all this in one day.
“Silence and darkness will come to the world, and humanity will be destroyed,” the Mayans said. Now this seems absurd, just as it did for geophysicists in 2012. They still said back then that it was simply impossible. An interesting fact is that people were offered to survive during a terrible apocalypse by surviving it in a secluded place with huge supplies of food. Even the statement about the possible death of humanity was used by supermarkets around the world, which was very beneficial for them. The gullible people fearfully purchased food for months in advance.
But not only supermarkets made money from such news. In many cities, even special bunkers were built that supposedly could save people from the upcoming apocalypse. Living in such a safe place cost a lot of money. But, as it turned out, the apocalypse was not destined to happen, which is not at all surprising, because we have already survived several ends of the world and still live happily. Anthropologist Dirk Van Turenhout explained the situation by saying: “This is not the end, it’s just one calendar giving way to another.”
Another loud end of the world
The apocalypse was also expected in 2000. People believed that with the transition to the new millennium the very end of the world would come, and they even came up with a reason why this would happen - a parade of planets, the appearance of a second Moon. According to some reports, an asteroid was supposed to fall.
The end of the world in this case would come when it collides with the Earth. We have entered the new millennium, but the end of the world has never happened. Then astronomers and predictors decided to postpone the expected apocalypse to 2001. What is its reason?
Apocalypse-2001
Here things get even more interesting. “On August 11, 2001, planet Earth and the entire solar system will be sucked into a black hole,” this is an interesting forecast made by American astronomers. The following prediction was also made by an American scientist. According to him, in 2003 the end of the world will occur due to the collapse of the Earth. Apparently, few people believed the latest apocalypse, otherwise how can one explain the fact that there was almost no mention of it in the media. After this prediction, humanity lived quietly for five whole years, after which it became known about the next end of the world.
End of the World - 2008
This year several apocalypse scenarios have been announced.
One of them was the fall of a huge asteroid to Earth, the diameter of which was 800 meters. Another reason could be the launch of a huge collider. This made earthlings worry much more than the forecast of an asteroid fall. Fortunately, the excitement was in vain, but the fear left us for a short time. People started saying that the end of the world would happen in 2011. As it will be?
2011
This version turned out to be much more interesting. American Harold Camping predicted that on May 21 the dead would rise from their graves. Those who deserve to burn in hell will remain on earth and survive a number of terrible natural disasters: earthquakes, floods, tsunamis, and only then go to another world. The version itself is absurd, but, nevertheless, Harold Camping received a huge number of supporters, especially in the USA.
The preacher even gave hope that there would be a small percentage of survivors, consisting of his followers. An interesting fact is that a US PR company organized the release of huge posters with a statement about doomsday. After nothing like this happened on the expected day, the prophet himself moved the date of the end of the world to October 21 of the same year, explaining that the incident happened morally, and all that now needs to be done is to wait for the real, already final end of the world .
According to his new forecasts, it was supposed to happen in exactly 5 months. Despite Harold's predictions, the end of the world never came, and thousands of people calmly exhaled and continued to live. When Camping realized that his forecast was wrong, he admitted guilt and even apologized.
And again about 2012
Well, the most anticipated on the list of the ends of the world is the apocalypse of 2012. It has already been mentioned above. Perhaps discussions of this end of the world are the loudest of all.
This date, indeed, frightened millions of people all over the world, because not only the Mayan calendar spoke about the events of that year. Predictions about terrible events were made by Nostradamus and Vanga, known throughout the world for their prophecies. What did they really mean? Natural disasters, the beginning of a new life or the death of the planet? All this remains a mystery. But Patriarch Kirill said about 2012 and the apocalypse in general that it is not worth waiting for, because Jesus Christ does not give us instructions about any dates.
Will there be some kind of rebirth? Perhaps, but no one knows when it will come. Despite everything, people continue to listen to predictions and believe in the end of the world. So what threatens the Earth in the near future?
What do they promise in the future?
The next end of the world is scheduled for 2021. This statement was made by the SaraInform news agency, which presented a new list of the ends of the world. Magnetic field reversal is the reason for the end of the world in 2021. Or maybe not even the end, because they promise that not all of humanity will perish, but only a large part of it.
Scientists assume that this end of the world will not happen, but there will be another, and it will happen in 2036. In their opinion, an asteroid called Apophis will fall on the Earth, but again, this information is not objective, since the asteroid may diverge from the Earth.
Another apocalypse is supposed to happen in 2060. Newton himself predicted it back in 1740 from the holy book. And in 2240 the planetary epochs will change. This is what scientists who lived in different centuries said. And also, in their opinion, the era of the Sun should end this year.
Other possible doomsdays are dated to 2280, 2780, 2892 and 3797. By the way, the last apocalypse was predicted by Nostradamus, therefore, we are talking about the fact that he did not think about the end of the world in 2012 as the end of all life in general. In his letter to his son, he wrote that the Sun would supposedly absorb the Earth, exhausting all the hydrogen and reaching incredible volumes.
Other dates of the apocalypse are not yet taken seriously, but no one knows what will happen over time. By the way, these are not all dates, there are some others - intermediate ones, but no one pays attention to them, since the probability of incidents is almost zero.
Will the world end?
We have reviewed the list of the ends of the world; to believe or not to believe in forecasts is everyone’s personal choice. We can say with 100% certainty: no one knows and cannot know whether there will be an apocalypse and when exactly. What awaits the Earth in the near future? Who to trust: predictors or scientists? Each has their own point of view, however, it is worth noting that the information of the latter is more reasoned and objective.
Instead of guessing, it is better to think about the real harm we are doing to our planet. For example, each of us can improve the environmental situation, because the Earth is really in a dangerous state, and people themselves are to blame for all this.